Not Just Another Recession Why the Global Economy May Never Be the Same
in March of 2020 when Covid hit the states:
"Thats it, were done, we cant afford this and we'll never recover."
You have to understand the purpose behind all the Seal judgements, The Bowl judgements, The Trumpet judgements, the two woes, etc...It's all to get you to turn back to your creator and realize we are not in charge. He's gonna make it so that you have no place else to go but to him because there just wont be anything left.
Hebrews 12:25-29
See that you do not refuse him who is speaking. For if they did not escape when they refused him who warned them on earth, much less will we escape if we reject him who warns from heaven. At that time his voice shook the earth, but now he has promised, “Yet once more I will shake not only the earth but also the heavens.” This phrase, “Yet once more,” indicates the removal of things that are shaken—that is, things that have been made—in order that the things that cannot be shaken may remain. Therefore let us be grateful for receiving a kingdom that cannot be shaken, and thus let us offer to God acceptable worship, with reverence and awe, for our God is a consuming fire.
Even so?
Most wont humble themselves and accept him.
Now on to the piece:
"To say that the last few years have been economically turbulent would be a colossal understatement. Inflation has surged to its highest level in decades, and a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and rising interest rates now threatens to plunge the global economy into recession. Yet for the most part, economists and financial analysts have treated these developments as outgrowths of the normal business cycle. From the U.S. Federal Reserve’s initial misjudgment that inflation would be “transitory” to the current consensus that a probable U.S. recession will be “short and shallow,” there has been a strong tendency to see economic challenges as both temporary and quickly reversible.
(Isaiah 30:10
Which say to the seers, See not; and to the prophets, Prophesy not unto us right things, speak unto us smooth things, prophesy deceits:)
"But rather than one more turn of the economic wheel, the world may be experiencing major structural and secular changes that will outlast the current business cycle."
(Ya think? Maybe?)
"Three new trends in particular hint at such a transformation and are likely to play an important role in shaping economic outcomes over the next few years: the shift from insufficient demand to insufficient supply as a major multi-year drag on growth, the end of boundless liquidity from central banks, and the increasing fragility of financial markets."
("the shift from insufficient demand to insufficient supply" Reference todays presentation about oil prices, thats exactly the case right there.)
"These shifts help explain many of the unusual economic developments of the last few years, and they are likely to drive even more uncertainty in the future as shocks grow more frequent and more violent. These changes will affect individuals, companies, and governments—economically, socially, and politically. And until analysts wake up to the probability that these trends will outlast the next business cycle, the economic hardship they cause is likely to significantly outweigh the opportunities they create."
("as shocks grow more frequent and more violent."
Matthew 24:4-8
Jesus answered: “Watch out that no one deceives you. For many will come in my name, claiming, ‘I am the Messiah,’ and will deceive many. You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth pains."
They get closer and closer together and more and more sever as they do. You gonna argue you're not witnessing that right now? Thats a hard case to make TBH. Thing is? You have to understand that is just the start.)
"DOWN IS UP
Recessions and bouts of inflation come and go, but the last few years have seen a series of highly unlikely, if not unthinkable, global economic and financial developments."
(It's not just economic and financial, it's climate, it's geopolitics, it's everything basically that a few short years ago we thought of as "unlikely, if not unthinkable". You might wanna pause and show a lil reverence to who it is thats in charge and it's recognize that it's obviously not us.)
"Add to this list of low-probability events
China’s rapid recentralization under Xi Jinping...
its decoupling from the United States,
the strengthening of autocracies around the world,
and the polarization and even fragmentation of many liberal democracies.
Climate change,
demographic shifts,
and the gradual migration of economic power from west to east
were more foreseeable but have nonetheless complicated the global economic environment."
(Why do you think all this is happening RN?
What is your answer?
Why are there no good solutions to all the crises we face?
I know my answer, and i know what my solution is, I've been sharing it with everybody.
I hope, i honestly hope at least some will see the light and save their eternal soul.)
"The inclination of many analysts has been to seek bespoke explanations for each surprising development. But there are important common threads, especially among the economic and financial events, including the failure to generate rapid, inclusive, and sustainable growth; the overreliance of policymakers on a narrow toolkit that over time has created more problems than it has solved; and the absence of common action to address shared global problems. These commonalities, in turn, mostly (although not entirely) boil down to the three transformational changes occurring in the global economy and finance.
(Bespoke: made for a particular customer, not seeing the commonality that runs through all.
"the failure to generate rapid, inclusive, and sustainable growth;"
Inclusive as in income ineqaulity.
Substainable growth cant happen if corporations are just allowed to rip off their customers till nobody has any $ left and is in debt up to their eyeballs etc...
"overreliance of policymakers on a narrow toolkit that over time has created more problems than it has solved"
(See the previous piece on QE.)
"WORLD REWIRED
Coming out of the 2007–8 global financial crisis, most economists blamed sluggish economic growth on lack of demand. The U.S. government sought to rectify this problem through stimulus spending (although polarization in Congress constrained this approach from 2011 to 2017) and, more important, through the Fed’s decision to floor interest rates and inject a massive amount of liquidity into the markets. The approach was put on steroids, first by the Trump administration’s spending and tax cuts and then by the emergency support doled out by both the Trump and the Biden administrations to households and companies during the COVID-19 pandemic—all while the Federal Reserve flooded the system with cash."
"It is not easy to jump-start a global economy that has been forced to a sudden halt. Shipping containers are in the wrong place, as are the ships themselves. Not all production comes back online in a coordinated manner. Supply chains are disrupted. And thanks to enormous handouts from governments and abundant central bank liquidity, demand surges well ahead of supply"
("It is not easy to jump-start a global economy that has been forced to a sudden halt."
Whose in charge again?)
"As time passed, however, it became clear that the supply constraints stemmed from more than just the pandemic. Certain segments of the population exited the labor force at unusually high rates, either by choice or necessity, making it harder for companies to find workers. This problem was compounded by disruptions in global labor flows as fewer foreign workers received visas or were willing to migrate."
"Such changes accelerated the post-pandemic rewiring of global supply chains to aim for more “friend shoring” and “near shoring.”
This is not the only rewiring underway. Climate change is finally forcing companies, households, and governments to alter their behavior."
"The bottom line is that changes in the nature of globalization, widespread labor shortages, and the imperatives of climate change have created supply difficulties and put already-challenged growth models under even more stress."
"SCRAMBLING CENTRAL BANKS
Making matters worse, these changes in the global economic landscape come at the same time that central banks are fundamentally altering their approach. For years, central banks in major economies have responded to virtually any sign of economic weakness or market volatility by throwing more money at the problem. After all, by necessity more than by choice, they had been forced to use their admittedly imperfect tools to maintain economic stability until governments could overcome political polarization and step in to do their jobs."
("until governments could overcome political polarization and step in to do their jobs." Yeah good luck with that.)
"But the longer central banks extended what was meant to be a time-limited intervention—buying bonds for cash and keeping interest rates artificially low—the more collateral damage they caused."
(Hello Peter Schiff, the SPR drawdown comparison etc...
"the more collateral damage they caused"
Hasnt even really started yet BTW)
"Liquidity-charged financial markets decoupled from the real economy, which reaped only limited benefits from these policies. The rich, who own the vast majority of assets, became richer, and markets became conditioned to think of central banks as their best friends, always there to curtail market volatility. Eventually, markets started to react negatively to even hints of a reduction in central bank support, effectively holding central banks hostage and preventing them from ensuring the health of the economy as a whole."
(Translations:
"Liquidity-charged financial markets decoupled from the real economy,"
The 34 year olds, "normal".
"The rich, who own the vast majority of assets, became richer"
Revelation 6:6
Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, “Two pounds[a] of wheat for a day’s wages,[b] and six pounds[c] of barley for a day’s wages,[d] and do not damage the oil and the wine!”
Workers get starvation wages, well grow richer forever.
"markets became conditioned to think of central banks as their best friends"
There's no risk here any more fellas, borrow all you want and invest it! It wont cost you anything, and the return from the market is extraordinary! Or better yet engage in stock buy backs and pump up the price of your own stock and then cash that out!
"Eventually, markets started to react negatively to even hints of a reduction in central bank support, effectively holding central banks hostage and preventing them from ensuring the health of the economy as a whole."
Dont you dare take away our drug (Fed's easy $ policy), we need that to continue on this course.)
"All this changed with the surge in inflation that began in the first half of 2021. Initially misdiagnosing the problem as transitory, the Fed made the mistake of enabling mainly energy and food price hikes to explode into a broad-based cost-of-living phenomenon. Despite mounting evidence that inflation would not go away on its own, the Fed continued to pump liquidity into the economy until March 2022, when it finally began raising interest rates—and only modestly at first.
(Hello idiosyncrasy! Who bends the arc of history to their desired outcome? The almighty.
And again I disagree, the Fed didn't misdiagnose the problem as transitory, they knew it wasn't all along, The fed didn't make the mistake of "enabling mainly energy and food price hikes to explode into a broad-based cost-of-living phenomenon." It was the bloated money supply that created it. You create 6 trillion $'s out of thin air in a matter of years? After having already pumped "liquidity" into the system and had artificially low interest rates for a decade as a continuation of policies that started with the financial crisis? Then this is what happens. Talk about backing yourself in a corner with no real good solutions (QE) We prolonged the inevitable by 14 years, yea us.)
"As a result, it was forced to pivot to a series of much steeper rate hikes, including a record four successive increases of 0.75 percentage points between June and November. Markets recognized that that the Fed was scrambling make up for lost time and started worrying that it would keep rates higher for longer than would be good for the economy. The result was financial market volatility that, if sustained, could threaten the functioning of global financial markets and further damage the economy."
(Nothing but a complete and total collapse is in order. This is what we get for putting our faith in ourselves and the "things that can be shaken." (things that are made) instead of the thing that cant be shaken. "My word will stand forever", it has, it is and it will, I'd start to trust in it if I was you.)
"RISKY BUSINESS
The conditioning of markets to always expect easy money had another perverse effect, encouraging a significant chunk of global financial activity to migrate from highly regulated banks to less well-understood and regulated entities such as asset managers, private equity funds, and hedge funds. These entities did what they are paid to do: take advantage of prevailing financial conditions to turn a profit. That meant taking on more debt and leverage, venturing further from their areas of expertise, and running ever greater risks on the assumption that easy money and reliable central bank support would persist well into the future."
(Opps)
"Few of these firms planned for a sudden change in the cost of borrowing or access to funding."
(No party last forever guys, come on now, what were you thinking?)
"BUMPY ROAD, BETTER DESTINATION
These major structural changes go a long way toward explaining why growth is slowing in most of the world, inflation remains high, financial markets are unstable, and a surging dollar and interest rates have caused headaches in so many countries. Unfortunately, these changes also mean that global economic and financial outcomes are becoming harder to predict with a high degree of confidence. Instead of planning for one likely outcome—a baseline—companies and governments now have to plan for many possible outcomes. And some of these outcomes are likely to have a cascading effect, so that one bad event has a high probability of being followed by another. In such a world, good decision-making is difficult and mistakes are easily made."
(I've been telling people to buckle up for a while now, get your heart and soul right, nobody is going to escape the coming judgement of God, nobody.
"Unfortunately, these changes also mean that global economic and financial outcomes are becoming harder to predict with a high degree of confidence."
Not for some of us they aren't.
"some of these outcomes are likely to have a cascading effect, so that one bad event has a high probability of being followed by another."
Hello birth pains, dominos etc
"In such a world, good decision-making is difficult and mistakes are easily made"
Matter of time, yup...)
"Fortunately, what it takes to navigate such a world is not a secret. Resilience, optionality, and agility are all vital. Resilience, or the ability to bounce back from setbacks, is often dependent on strong balance sheets and stamina, endurance, and integrity. Optionality, which enables a change in course at a low cost, is underpinned by the open-mindedness that comes from diversity in gender, race, culture, or experience. And agility, or the ability to react quickly to changing conditions, depends on leadership and governance that allow for bold moves in moments of greater clarity."
(Now were talkin my language :-).
"Resilience, or the ability to bounce back from setbacks, is often dependent on strong balance sheets (Ill substitute strength here) and stamina, endurance, and integrity...And agility, or the ability to react quickly to changing conditions, depends on leadership and governance that allow for bold moves in moments of greater clarity"
Like I said, talkin my language :-).
"Policy priorities should include modernizing infrastructure to help increase supply, improving labor training and retooling programs, and launching public-private partnerships to meet pressing needs such as vaccine development. At the same time, governments and central banks should keep fighting inflation and improve the coordination of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and structural reforms that enhance productivity and growth."
(Ohhhhhhh, now I get it, you mean we should do now all the things we should have been doing all along! Gotcha!
"and structural reforms that enhance productivity and growth."
Like?
Give me an example, just one.
Not one?
Really?)
"Governments should also improve supervision and regulation of non-bank financial entities, which will require gaining a much better understanding of the technical linkages between them, the implicit leverage that lurks off their balance sheets, and the channels through which risk can spread to the broader financial system. Finally, governments should put in place stronger safety nets to protect the most vulnerable segments of society, which time and again have been the most exposed to economic and financial shocks.
(Again, it's all the stuff we should have been doing all along but never did. Is it just me or does it seem a lil late in the game to start fixing everything we have done wrong over the last 40 years with China and Russia breathing down our necks? And "protecting the most vulnerable?, Yeah, like that's ever gonna happen.)
"Governments will need to work together to reform international financial institutions, pool insurance against common shocks, enhance early warning systems, preemptively restructure the debts of countries laboring under heavy debt overhangs that starve their social sectors and inhibit capacity building, and improve the functioning of the G-20."
(Did this guy paying attention to how well governments worked together against Covid? To how well they have worked against climate change?)
"The world isn’t just teetering on the brink of another recession. It is in the midst of a profound economic and financial shift."
Matthew 24:21
For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now—and never to be equaled again.
Godspeed.
Journey well everyone.
I love you baby.
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