Good Piece...

 

It’s the Terrifying Question: Will the War Spread North?

If it does, the region—and maybe the world—is on fire. 

But so far, most signs are that Iran does not want a wider war.

"Will the Hamas-Israel conflict turn into a regional conflagration? Is the Gaza war going to spiral out of control? It seems increasingly plausible."

"Israel has demonstrated its alarm over the prospect by issuing threats and warnings to Iran’s most potent client, Hezbollah in Lebanon."

"But by far the biggest concern is that the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah militia will get drawn into the conflict with Israel. Unlike pro-Iranian militia groups in Iraq and even Yemen, and certainly unlike Hamas, Hezbollah is an extremely potent hybrid military organization combining exceptionally effective guerrilla and commando capabilities with conventional military prowess. Hezbollah has demonstrated the ability to take and hold territory and, in its last major conflict with Israel in 2006, it shocked the Israeli military with its capabilities, including effective use of land-to-sea missiles against Israeli naval forces. Since then, the organization’s capabilities have greatly expanded. It has developed a vast arsenal of missiles and rockets with hyper-precision guidance capable of striking anywhere in Israel. Its ground forces are also now more battle-hardened and experienced than ever due to the Syrian war, in which Hezbollah troops were essential to the coalition with Russia and Iran that intervened in the fall of 2015 to keep Bashar Assad in power."

(If you are 35?, you were 18 in 2006.

I remember that conflict.

Where was your head then?

It's why I dont listen to many 

talking heads

35 year olds, on TV 

or otherwise.

This is most certainly not "business as usual" 

"They've always been fighting over there" etc.

and those of us who know so?

Know so.

That is example #1.)

"The U.S. has dispatched the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group 

(Our newest and most advanced carrier BTW) 

to the eastern Mediterranean, soon to be joined by additional U.S. Air Force fighter power, all in a clear warning to Hezbollah and Iran that Washington is also prepared to get involved if need be. It’s the first time in decades, and arguably ever, that American forces have been poised to actively defend Israel."

(Thats example #2 of why this isn't just another flare up.)

"But there are ample reasons to think that Iran also will not want Hezbollah to enter into a major conflict with Israel over the Gaza war. Hezbollah is Iran’s greatest asset, to be deployed only when absolutely necessary. The main function of Hezbollah for Iran is to serve as a massive and potent deterrent against Israeli military strikes on Iran itself, and particularly against its nuclear facilities. Tehran is therefore highly unlikely to want to expend such a potent deterrent on Gaza, which is, in truth, of marginal strategic interest to Iran. Deterrents are only effective when poised and in waiting. If they are deployed in action, they no longer serve the deterrent function. Instead, they become combatants that are expended as a deterrent force. Since Iran regards Hezbollah as a crucial defense against Israeli attacks on its key assets at home, it is going to think twice before expending that for any other purpose."

(Well said...)

"Alternatively, if fighting spreads to the occupied West Bank and, above all, occupied East Jerusalem, calculations could quickly change. Violence in and around the Al Aqsa Mosque complex in Jerusalem would inflame Arab and Muslim passions around the world in a way that nothing in Gaza could. A conflagration around the third-holiest site in Islam could prompt either Hezbollah or Iran, or both, to decide that there is more to gain than to lose by unleashing Hezbollah’s fearsome missile and rocket capabilities in the name of defending the faith and, in effect, God."

"The good news is that one of the few things that Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah all agree on is that the war should not spread, especially to include the potent Lebanese militia. The bad news is that when tensions and passions rise, parties that rationally do not want a conflict with each other are sometimes drawn into a reactive dynamic that produces one anyway.

World War I is probably the most striking example of how actors that don’t want a conflict can end up in a huge one anyway."

It's pretty much where the world is today.

Getting ready to Refight WW1 all over again, from Syria to Ukraine to the Caucasus to the Sahel...just way to many hotspots with to many security agreements between to many parties for a wide conflagration not to erupt sometime soon.

Also?

The Hamas attack was the largest slaughter of Jews since WW2, so to those who would erroneously state:

 "Well they have been fighting like this forever over there." 

No. 

Not like this they haven't, 

and not with us involved either.

Those of us who have been paying attention a long time no better than to take that simpleton argument at face value. That only works on those who are uninformed and haven't been paying attention very long.

Godspeed everybody.