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good news just keeps comin...:-)

Thats sarcasm BTW :-)

(It is good news in the sense that your book is true.)

Here's what would happen to markets and the economy if China attacked Taiwan

First of all, it's not a "if" kinda situation, it's a "when" situation.

"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year has roiled global energy markets and caused food shortages in some parts of the world. The disruptions could intensify during the winter, with soaring energy costs causing a recession in Europe and weakening the economies of the United States and many other nations. A broader and more devastating conflict remains possible."

(Completely 100% agree with everything contained in that statement particularly about disruptions intensifying this winter)

"A war involving China would be orders of magnitude worse."

(You betcha it would be.)

"If that involved armed conflict, it would probably cause more damage to the world economy and global markets than any military confrontation since World War II. Unlike Russia or Ukraine, China’s powerhouse manufacturing sector is deeply linked with economies everywhere, including the United States and Europe. The seas around China and Taiwan are some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world."

"Wartime disruption of all that commerce would be devastating. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for instance, U.S. trade with Russia was $36 billion per year. Trade with Ukraine was $4 billion per year, for a total of $40 billion in direct trade jeopardized by the war."

"U.S. trade with China is $656 billion per year, including imports of consumer products in every American home and components in many goods assembled in the United States. U.S. trade with Taiwan is $114 billion, and that includes some of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Combined, U.S. trade with China and Taiwan is 10 times U.S. trade between Russia and Ukraine, and it involves products far more crucial to the U.S. economy. The same interdependencies exist between China, Taiwan and most of the world’s advanced economies.

(If? It involved armed conflict? It most assuredly will.)

"In the event of a war, “the economic fallout would be disastrous,” Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue in the new book “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China." They add, “A global depression would be all but guaranteed.”

(Theres a book that explains all this that everybody just insist on ignoring)

"President Biden clarified that policy in May, when he said that yes, the United States would defend Taiwan if China invaded. While that would be Taiwan’s best chance of surviving as an independent democracy, it may also be the worst scenario for the economic catastrophe a war over Taiwan would produce."

"The Rand research organization estimates that a war involving China and the United States would slice 5% off the $23 trillion U.S. economy, That would be the biggest blow to American prosperity since the Great Depression in the 1930s. In 2009, amid the Great Recession, U.S. gross domestic product dropped by just 2.6%. The S&P 500 stock index bottomed out in 2009 55% below its prior peak, which might be a mere taste of the losses investors could expect from a U.S.-China war."

(I think that 5% is an EXTREME underestimation of the economic fall out that would ensue. In any event it will be devastating.)

"In Taiwan, the semiconductor industry is so important that capturing it intact might be a Day One goal of China’s military, if it were to invade. It’s also possible Taiwan and its allies could destroy state-of-the-art fabrication plants, to keep this vital technology out of Chinese hands.

“You could make a rational argument that the West would be a whole lot better off having the Taiwanese chip industry be a smoking hole in the ground than being under Chinese control,” Stanford University scholar Herbert Lin recently told Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul.

(Knowing what I knew about Taiwan and its advanced semiconductor industry and its share of the global market? I thought the same thing well before I read this article last night.)

"If the United States did go to war, victory would hardly be pre-ordained. China has been aggressively building its military for two decades and deliberately crafting a force able to defeat the United States in a war over Taiwan. China would be fighting off its own shores, while American supply lines would stretch over the vast Pacific Ocean.

"Taiwan’s own military is the first line of defense, and it’s not clear the island’s forces are as prepared for war as China’s may be. One concern is a possible army of Chinese spies embedded in Taiwan’s national-security apparatus. The vaunted U.S. military could also find itself unprepared. As Brands and Beckley point out, U.S. military power is “about to dip,” as the Pentagon retires legions of industrial-era warships and bombers. Newer and better combat systems are coming, but not for a while."

(So China is just going to wait till we upgrade? Probably not.)

“Mr. Xi has repeatedly said that the task of ‘liberating’ Taiwan cannot be passed down from generation to generation,” Brands and Beckley wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal. “In the mid- and late 2020s, he’ll have his best chance to accomplish that mission.”

"There’s no tangible sign that China is preparing to launch an actual war or that President Xi would be willing to plunge his nation into a maelstrom he himself might not survive."

"That’s probably right. But many analysts thought Russian President Vladimir Putin would never risk the wrath of the West by invading Ukraine, and Putin proved them wrong. There’s nothing to worry about until the moment invading forces cross a border. Then there’s everything to worry about."

Exactly.

Godspeed everybody, it's not an if, but a when and I dare say it will be in the next two years sometime. US military officials have repeatedly said he wont invade for the next two years. Im sure he will stick to our timetable for his invasion. We'd better have contingency plans to take out thos semiconductor facilities.

"By 2020 Taiwan was the unmatched leader of the global semiconductor industry with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) alone accounting for more than 50% of the global market."

Semiconductor industry in Taiwan

Pelosi spoke with the CEO of TSMC on her recent trip  BTW.