i'd

 

go with option #2.

If there is anything that the Russians are good at? 

It's holding out.

Oil Volatile as Traders Await Price Cap Details, Russian Sanctions

"Scenario 1: 

Russia Gives In

The first scenario explains how policymakers envision the price cap policy working and is based on the premise that Russian President Vladimir Putin is desperate for revenue and needs to sell Russian oil."

(Putin wouldn't have started this if he was just gonna give in.)

"Scenario 2: 

Russia Holds Out

The second scenario is how the price cap policy could play out if Putin doesn’t react as the G7 expect. It is based on the premise that Putin, even if he is desperate to sell oil, won’t act out of desperation. He will refuse to sell Russian oil at or below the price cap and will hold out on maritime supplies to India, China, Turkey, and others until they agree to pay his price (which is already discounted from the market price). He will do this even at the risk of damage to Russian oil fields or storing oil in less-than-ideal conditions."

(Yeah, you can pretty much count on it.)

"Russian oil will remain on the market, some Saudi and Iraqi oil will get rerouted to customers in Europe, but consumers everywhere will pay higher prices for a longer time because of the “Russian holdout” effect on the market. Because prices are higher, OPEC might be inclined to increase production so more Saudi and Iraqi oil is available for European consumers.

(The Saudis have already switched sides...and dont count on increased OPEC production, etc)

"Until the G7 finalize their price cap mechanism, the market will continue to be volatile because customers don’t know what to expect. Once the policies go into effect, traders should be prepared for both of the above scenarios and their impact on the oil market."

(Like I said, go with option #2)