OMGoodness

 

these people...

They just kill me.

October CPI: Inflation moderates, rising at annual 7.7% over last year

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October reflected a 7.7% increase over last year and 0.4% increase over the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. Economists had expected prices rose at an annual 7.9% clip and 0.5% month-over-month, per Bloomberg consensus estimates."

(I love how we concentrate on the fact that inflation was .2% lower than expectations on an annual basis and .1% lower than expectations on a month to month basis...Yippie! Break out the champagne honey.)

(Thats 9.1% at it's highest on 6/1/22 and 7.7% here with the latest numbers the other day.)

"While October's figures showed inflationary pressures remained elevated, some signs of cooling prices were present in the release. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares all declined over the month. Meanwhile, shelter — which comprises nearly one-third of the basket for consumer price inflation — contributed to over half of the monthly all-items increase. Prices on gasoline and food also continued to rise."

"If this constitutes improvement, we’ve set a very low bar," Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said in a note. “The pervasiveness of price increases remains problematic."

(Amen. We have to set the bar low because we are not going to see the kind of decreases in inflation we need to. We just wont, because the interest rates we need to see to get inflation under control will have us default on just the INTEREST PAYMENT on the national debt. Period.)

"The areas posting declines are for the most part either irregular or more discretionary in nature – airfare, used cars, and apparel," McBride added. "Any meaningful relief for household budgets is still somewhere over the horizon.”

(Like...way over the horizon...)

"While CPI cooled more than expected in October, opening the door for a possible easing in the U.S. central bank's tightening plans, inflation remains well above the Fed's target of 2%."

"Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly signaled that while the size and magnitude of hikes may slow, the fight against inflation is nowhere near over, and signaled the likelihood of a higher than expected liftoff of its key policy interest rate."

("a higher than expected liftoff of its key policy interest rate." the Fed knew all along it was going to have to raise rates higher than it was saying.)

"Goldman Sachs was the first among big banks in the days leading up to November’s FOMC meeting to warn rates may rise as high as 5% by March 2023."

(Thats enough to make us default right there.)

"Bank of America upwardly revised their projections to a terminal rate of 5.0-5.25% from 4.75-5.0% and said the institution anticipates a 0.50% increase for December.

TD Securities lifted its terminal rate forecast from a range of 4.75%-5.00% to 5.25%-5.50% and sees a 50-basis-point hike at the next meeting Dec. 13-14. BNP Paribas expects a fifth 75-basis-point increase next month and a terminal fed funds level of 5.25% in the first quarter of next year."

("terminal rate" is when they quit raising rates. 5.0% to 5.5% would help to slow down inflation, but it wont get it anywhere close to the Feds target of 2% and it will have us default on the national debt.

Think of it this way, lets go back to the chart included in this article for a second:

The lil dip there on the right at the end?

Thats inflation falling from it's height of 9.1% on 6/1 to 7.7% where it is today, that's a reduction of  1.4%.

It took us 238 million barrels of oil released from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) and a 3.5% increase in interest rates to get it to drop 1.4%.

So lets just extrapolate (love that word BTW, WOD :-) those numbers, all things being equal, to see what it would take us to get to the feds targeted rate of 2% inflation.

If 238 million barrels of oil and 3.5% interest rate increases got us a reduction of inflation by 1.4%? And its still at 7.7%? So how many more times would we have to do all that to get it where we want it?

7.7% Current CPI inflation (forget the PCE the Feds "preferred method" of measuring inflation, remember, these are the people who told us the money supply didn't matter anymore, that inflation isn't going to be a problem and then when it was a problem they said it would only be transitory, anyway back to the point) 7.7%  CPI inflation currently - 2% (The Fed's target for inflation) / 1.4  (The reduction we've seen with the measures weve taken to date) = 7.7% (Current) -2% (feds inflation target) = 5.7/1.4 (Reduction we have seen so far) = 4.07. So we would have to do all of this over 4 more times (Everything being the same) to get inflation to the feds target of 2%. 

So that's 4.07 x 238 million barrels of oil and 4.07 x 3.5 (rise in interest rates to date).

Thats 969 million barrels of oil yet to release ( We cant, there's only about 400 million barrels of oil in the in the SPR right now) and 14.25 % interest rates to get to the FEDs target rate of inflation.

Quite simply?

It's just never going to happen.

Americans are already existing on credit cards just to get by.

Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed report says

China and Russia already know all of this, it's why they are making the geopolitical moves they are, anything else anybody says is just nonsense, and I really dont care who they are.

Buckle up, the ride ahead gonna be bumpier than you ever imagined. Think the worse case scenario you could have ever imagined and then think that's just the start.

"The depression gonna seem like a picnic compared to this" 

I remember somebody saying...

Yup...

Who was that BTW?

You gonna be able to praise god during all of that?

I sure hope so.

Job 2:9-10

His wife said to him, “Are you still maintaining your integrity? Curse God and die!”

He replied, “You are talking like a foolish[a] woman. Shall we accept good from God, and not trouble?”

In all this, Job did not sin in what he said.

"The Hebrew word rendered foolish denotes moral deficiency."

I love you baby.

TTYS honey.