Thursday, January 12, 2023

We

 


are just falling head first right into this trap.


Ukraine zeroes in on western tanks in bid to rout Russia



Have been all along.

The reason countries dont want to be seen as "escalatory" toward Russia is they know the Russians have weapons they dont have defenses for.

Putin could take out command and control centers in Kiev with just a few or even one multiple warhead Hypersonic weapon.

(And no the Patriot Missile defense battery wont shoot them down. We, nor anyone (regardless what the Chinese say) have defenses for these things.

The Russians in Ukraine and China in the pacific see this as the opportunity they have always waited for and what set the wheels in motion again?

Covid.

(2nd woe in my oppion.)


Excerpts from the article follow:

"Ukrainian defense officials are zeroing in on tank deliveries from the U.S. and European partners, saying the firepower and security provided by the armored artillery vehicles will keep up the momentum in its efforts to rout invading Russian forces."

"The Biden administration has increased the heavy artillery it is providing Ukraine, but has done so slowly and incrementally to protect against perceptions that Washington is provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin." 

("...protect against perceptions that Washington is provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin." I think that bridge done been passed over TBH).


"Ukrainian officials have welcomed the Biden administration’s recent announcement to supply armored vehicles with machine guns — Bradley fighting vehicles — but are pushing for Washington to commit to sending Abrams tanks."


(So? If untrained, uncoordinated amateurs can modify commercial drones and take out a tanks associated with the 11th Army Corps ? By hitting them in the turret where the armor is the weakest with drone launched RPGs? (Thats the narrative" were being forced fed and I never once bought it). Then wats to stop Russians from doing the same thing?)


"Ukrainian officials say an announcement by the Biden administration that it would supply tanks would send an important political signal to Putin and Russia that the U.S. and its allies are united in their support."

"And it would also push back against concerns that a new Republican House majority threatens bipartisan backing for Kyiv, or that Europe’s solidarity is fracturing in the face of Moscow’s havoc, they say."

"Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, told The Economist last month that Kyiv needs 300 tanks to achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield against Russia, along with 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers."

(We are going to have to continually give them an army of equipment?

 At a minimum at least and continually train personnel and maintain it?

Lets just say we go ahead and give them everything they need right now today and they kick Putins ass back to Moscow, regime change etc. I got two words for you:

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

As...Oh IDK, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya have all proven?

Getting the guy out you wanted out lots of times leads to WORSE consequences than were anticipated.

And besides, it wont happen, but if Putin was to actually face defeat?

He will level Kiev with Hypersonics, use a tactical Nuke etc...

There are no good solutions here.)


Historically, one of the reasons people have had tanks and why they were invented was actually to take static situations and make them fluid,” he said. “If you have a good enough maneuver force you might be able to break through a defensive line and the maneuverability of a tank gives you the ability to take advantage of that.” 

Sak said that 200 tanks to Ukraine could make a difference, and credits Western tanks as being safer than Russian or Soviet-era armored fighting vehicles. 


(Historically is the optimum word in that paragraph as drone warfare has recently changed tank and artillery warfare for good.)


"Sak said that the decision by the U.S. and Germany to deliver light armored vehicles represents the West overcoming a “mental block,” and that the Ukrainians are pushing for tanks, the U.S.-made surface to surface missiles ATACMS, and fighter jets including American-made F16s and Swedish-made Grippins. "

“Tanks are the next mental hurdle that the West needs to overcome in order to actually help Ukraine,” Sak said. 

But the Biden administration still appears to see Abrams as a step too far, for now."


 "Given the U.S. has slowly offered more powerful weapons and combat vehicles for Ukraine, John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said the Biden administration is likely to eventually send the M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine."

"He said there were several factors for the U.S. that could sway officials in the direction of providing the tanks, including public pressure, losses in Ukraine and other NATO allies providing similar equipment.'

“It will happen, it’s just a matter of when,” he said.

(Agreed.

And as far as, "Given the U.S. has slowly offered more powerful weapons and combat vehicles for Ukraine" is concerned? That is something we didn't want to have to do to start with.)


"In Europe, the conversation on tanks is gaining steam." 

"The United Kingdom is reportedly weighing whether to ship Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine."

"In Finland, Chairman of the Committee on Defense Affairs Antti Häkkänen reportedly said that if Europe began sending tanks to Ukraine, Helsinki could provide Leopard 2 tanks — German-made heavy fighting vehicles first introduced in the 1970s."

"There are an estimated 2,000 Leopard tanks in Europe, according to the European Council on Foreign Affairs." 

"Polish President ​​Andrzej Duda said Wednesday that Warsaw would send “a company of Leopard tanks” as part of an international coalition.' 

"European countries in possession of Leopards likely need permission from Germany to transfer the fighting vehicles, although such provisions are specific to the individual contracts."


"Edmonds added providing tanks would send a signal of support that is just as important as the combat capabilities it would provide.

“It’s a significant level of commitment to the Ukraine war,” he said.

(And it is not what we wanted...)


I reiterate:


"...and the question was how we should maneuver them (The Japanese) into the position of firing the first shot with-out allowing too much danger to ourselves."


From Henry Stimson's Diary

(FDR War Secretary.)



Now you're watching the Russian version of it right in front of your eyes.








No comments: