FYI

 

Will the race to develop hypersonic weapons spark the next global arms race?

Some might argue it already has.

“You have failed to contain Russia,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said when he first announced his plans for the hypersonic arsenal in 2018."

"Avangard, which detaches from missiles and, according to the Kremlin, blasts down at 20,000 miles per hour in unpredictable trajectories before slamming targets “like a meteorite, like a fireball” as Putin has described it."

"Celebrating the launch, Russian state TV released a video, showing the European capitals the missile could hit within five minutes, and Putin ally Aleksey Zhuravlyov, Duma defense committee deputy chairman, told state media that from Russia’s Arctic bases, hypersonic weapons could reach Finland in “even 10 seconds” and underscored that Russia’s hypersonic nuclear weapons could reach the U.K. in 200 seconds."

"Moscow recently announced it will conduct another 19 weapons tests in the Arctic by the end of this year, the official added, including “long-range, high-precision, hypersonic weapon systems."

"The U.S. has so far spent roughly $10 billion to develop hypersonic weaponry over the past three years, Russia and China are aggressively testing them, and another nine countries are pursuing them, sparking fears that another arms race has already begun."

(Yup)

"Barreling at top speeds in the upper atmosphere and able to easily change directions mid-path, the trajectories and targets of hypersonic missiles are almost impossible for conventional missile defense systems to predict, according to experts — and the difficulty in tracking them has been documented in congressional hearings. As Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, noted in a Senate hearing of the Committee on Armed Services last summer, when it comes to hypersonic weapons, Western missile defense systems can’t “track, much less intercept, them.”

"Speaking in a personal capacity, Carrie Lee, chair of the Department of National Security and Strategy at the U.S. Army War College, told Yahoo News that “because hypersonics are so fast, and they can take warning systems by surprise, they compress the amount of time between launch and impact.” With intercontinental ballistic missiles, she noted, it “takes about 26 minutes or so between when you first detect it and when it impacts,” but hypersonic missiles might only be detected at the last moment. “There’s not a lot of time to make a decision about what the missile is, where it’s coming from…or to investigate if it’s a real threat. You have to assume the worst. So that [has the potential to make] people trigger-happy.”

"China’s appear more sophisticated, at least to judge from a globe-orbiting hypersonic trial run last fall. An October 2021 Chinese “fractional orbital bombardment” test was so impressive that, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley called it “a very significant technological event.” “I don’t know if it’s quite a Sputnik moment,” he said, “but I think it’s very close to that.” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall echoed Milley’s concerns, telling reporters, “It's a way to avoid defenses and missile warning systems." 

"Thus far, however, U.S. tests have been hit or miss. On Wednesday, a hypersonic missile test in Hawaii failed to properly launch, as did a similar test last October in Alaska, although the Air Force announced a successful launch of a hypersonic missile last month."

("The U.S. has so far spent roughly $10 billion to develop hypersonic weaponry over the past three years..."and as of this past Wednesday? We couldn't even get one to launch.)

"Some experts believe that the rush to develop hypersonic weapons is, in part, the byproduct of the development of sophisticated missile defense systems, as well as the U.S. decision to pull out of the antiballistic missile treaty with Russia in 2002.

In 1972, the U.S. and the then-U.S.S.R. signed the treaty, underscoring that global nuclear deterrence was based on the idea of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) — “meaning if I strike you, you strike me back with everything you’ve got, and that’s the end of the world. So that’s why we are going to restrain ourselves,” Sanne Verschuren, a fellow at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation, told Yahoo News.

"But in the 1980s, when the U.S. began developing its Strategic Defense Initiative system, known as “Star Wars,” and building up “ballistic missile defense, particularly in outer space, to try to intercept incoming missiles, it upset that MAD dynamic,” Verschuren said."

(Star wars = Reagan, adamantly opposed to it I was...yup...Back in my college days no less...yup)

“The U.S. sees new technologies being developed and we don’t have them and this gets into arms racing,” said Lee. “My personal opinion is the U.S. has a lot less to gain from developing hypersonic missiles and the money we’re putting into missile development should instead be put towards better defense systems.”

'But while many are worried about Russia’s hypersonic weapons, Mathieu Boulègue, senior research fellow for the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, isn’t one of them."

“Russia doesn’t really have working hypersonic systems,” he told Yahoo News. “I’ll be worried when Russia has a standing force of heavily deployed hypersonic systems that can actually create strategic effects in a standoff against the West. But right now, it’s just tests” of what he calls “asymmetric enablers.” Ten or 20 years down the road, “hypersonics could be a game-changer. But it’s still very early.”

(Maybe he didnt get the memo about Chinas more advanced capabilities? 

"Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley called it “a very significant technological event.” “I don’t know if it’s quite a Sputnik moment,” he said, “but I think it’s very close to that.” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall echoed Milley’s concerns, telling reporters, “It's a way to avoid defenses and missile warning systems." 

(All you need is two successful launches, one to hit wall street and one to hit Washington DC and were done...and we have no defenses)