FYI

 

Shock Jobs Report: Hiring, Wages Stay Hot As Unemployment Ties 53-Year Low; Dow Jones Falls

(Article posted 8/5/2022)

"While wage gains are still historically strong, they're not close to keeping up with inflation. The annual CPI inflation rate hit 9.1% in June."

"The headline job and wage figures come from the Labor Department's monthly survey of employers. A separate household survey, which is used to derive the unemployment rate, showed that the ranks of the employed rose a more moderate 179,000 in July."

Jobs Report Details

The leisure and hospitality sector added 96,000 jobs. Factory employment grew by 30,000.

Construction jobs rose by 32,000. Health care and social assistance payrolls rose 97,000. Retailers added 22,000 jobs, while transportation and warehousing jobs rose 21,000.

Unemployment Rate

The household survey showed that the ranks of the employed rose 179,000. The number of people participating in the labor force, meaning they're working or actively looking for a job, fell 63,000.

The share of the working age population (age 16 and up) participating in the labor force dipped to 62.1%.

According to the monthly survey of households, 5.67 million Americans are unemployed. That's now fewer than the 5.8 million unemployed in February 2020, before the Covid lockdown.

Jobs Report Puzzle

It seems possible that the uniformly strong July jobs report is overstating the strength of the labor market. The jobs data is subject to revision, after more complete data is collected months later. While it's unclear if major revisions will happen, here are some dissonant data points to keep in mind.  Oddly, over the past four months, the household survey shows the number of people working has fallen by 168,000, even as the employer survey shows an increase of 1.68 million.

Initial jobless claims have climbed 57% from mid-March lows to 260,000 in the week through July 30.

"It seems possible that the uniformly strong July jobs report is overstating the strength of the labor market."

Because people are needing more jobs just to try and keep up...

"While wage gains are still historically strong, they're not close to keeping up with inflation. The annual CPI inflation rate hit 9.1% in June."

Queue Brother Brian somebody:

"It's not complicated."

Im missing the days when people could think for themselves...I really am...

I love you honey :-).