I

 

have been saying this all along as well and it's all on here:

Drawing down the SPR was a mistake from the start as it put political considerations ahead of the security of the country at this perilous time of international geopolitics. (Russia in Ukraine, China in Taiwan)

That was one reason it was a mistake and it's the most important one.

The second reason it was a mistake is this:

Any time you artificially lower the price of something? Whether it be releasing oil from the SPR? Or artificially lowering interest rates for way to long, in either event, there comes a day of reckoning that will be worse than f you hadn't artificially lowered things to start with.

Guess what? 

That day of reckoning is about here.

• OPEC+ has fallen behind more than 3.5 million bpd on its output goals.
• The DoE has no immediate plans to start refilling the SPR.
• The risk of a supply shock grows as China's economy re-opens while Russian oil is being forced off the market.
• Oil demand has remained resilient in the face of a multitude of challenges.

"When the chief executive of Aramco said earlier this week that years of underinvestment had damaged the balance between supply and demand in the oil market, it should have been a wake-up call to those in decision-making positions. Instead, the secretary-general of the UN bashed the oil industry once again for “feasting” on record-high profits and urged governments to make them pay for this.

(I'm not trying to defend oil companies record high profits but you just cant rubber band back and forth between having oil be in negative price ranges (Yes, it actually was during COVID, they were paying people to take it off their hands for a while.) and $120 a barrel oil. Not in an industry with an aging workforce (in the US anyway) and a lot of them just quit or retired during COVID. Mid 50's and ready to go another round with oils boom and bust cycle? Lots of people just said no thx. 

 "you just cant rubber band back and forth between having oil be in negative price ranges...and $120 a barrel oil.

Thats part of the reason you know COVIS is doing exactly what your creator wanted it to do. There is one big ripple effect right there. Some others would be: interest rates/inflation/ an end to Fiat currency system.)

"OPEC’s production shortfall last month reached 3.58 million bpd—a figure equal to some 3.5 percent of global demand—and the United States continued to sell oil from its strategic petroleum reserve."

"These seemingly unrelated news reports do have something very important in common. Both clearly suggest a supply shortfall on a global level is imminent. Throw in the news that Russia’s oil exports could fall by some 2.4 million bpd after the EU embargo enters into effect in December, and an oil shortage becomes more or less unavoidable."

(Could the handwriting on the wall be any more clear?)

"Now, prices are somewhat tempered, but the embargo is still about two months away. Once this kicks in, prices are bound to jump because alternative supply is limited. And the U.S. will need to start refilling its SPR at some point because it is getting depleted."

(I reiterate, you simply can not keep drawing it down forever. At some point in time (soon I would hope but we wont) we will need to replenish it.)

"The Wall Street Journal sounded the alarm on that problem this week. Author Jinjoo Lee cited the Energy Information Administration as saying the inventory level at the SPR had declined by another 7 million barrels in the week to September 16, meaning the total was 427 million barrels. And this number was the lowest SPR inventory level since 1984. It is also the first time there is less oil in the SPR than in commercial storage, Lee noted."

"Perhaps worse is the fact that the administration has no plans to start replenishing the SPR anytime soon. In a report from earlier this month, the Department of Energy denied a report by Bloomberg that it was waiting for oil prices to dip below $80 per barrel to start refilling the SPR.)

(Oh its not "perhaps worse" it is worse. It's just bad decision after bad decision all politically motivated by the party in charge to try and stay so, Just keep spending, nothing to see here, no need to worry, peace and prosperity and "growth" (economic) forever seems to be our leaders only concerns.)

"This suggests the DoE has no immediate plans to start filling up the SPR, and this is a cause for worry because oil supply shocks tend not to be obvious until they become painfully so. And a supply shock is definitely coming to Europe if the U.S. is not there to help."

"Meanwhile, as the EU begins discussions of a price cap on Russian oil, in addition to the embargo, U.S. senators are pushing for increased sanction pressure on the buyers of Russian crude to make sure the other price cap, the one agreed to by the G7, works. If either of these latest efforts ends with a decision to take action, there should be little doubt that Russia will respond just as it said it would respond: no oil sales for price cappers. And this means even less oil to go around."

(I said that too, that the Russians will just turn off the spigot and that they are willing to endure hardships in order to accomplish their goals that we in the West are just not willing to accept. Opps. Sins of sister Sodom again? Arrogance. Were about to pay for it Im afraid, yup.)

"The evidence is right there under all our noses: Europe. For all its efforts to convert to the lowest emitter in the world—which it did for a while—Europe thrived not on cheap solar and wind but on cheap gas and abundant oil. Now that these are gone, European economies are beginning to fall apart."

(Take a guess who is next? It's really not hard to figure I promise...)