Lots

 

Putin’s final goal in Ukraine has demonstrably shifted, as has his escalation calculus

"Seth Cropsey is founder and president of Yorktown Institute. He served as a naval officer and as deputy undersecretary of the Navy, and he is the author of “Mayday: The Decline of American Naval Supremacy” (2013) and “Seablindness: How Political Neglect Is Choking American Seapower and What to Do About It” (2017).

 to consider.

First off this:

"Putin’s goal is now a stalled conflict, not a frozen one."

(Wrong, his goal has always been a stalled conflict. The longer it goes on the more it benefits him and Russia. Who's been saying that all along? Not "the experts", Thats for sure.)

"Two weeks ago, the Ukrainian military, with only a limited force — around a division’s worth of soldiers (10,000-15,000)— employed tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, and anti-aircraft systems to push deeply into Russian-held territory."

(Meanwhile Russias 1500 piece air force just sits? Even when they would be facing old anti aircraft systems of Ukraine? Does this make any sense to you really other than its a trap? A false sense of security to Ukraine and the west?)

"This does not indicate Putin seeks an “off-ramp.” In the long-term, Russia’s goals likely remain unchanged. Putin likely hopes to stall the conflict, prevent a Ukrainian counterstroke, and — in time — let the context shift, awaiting a collapse in Western cohesion or perhaps even a Chinese attack on Taiwan. In the short-term, however, Russia will look to hold its gains.

("This does not indicate Putin seeks an “off-ramp.” In the long-term, Russia’s goals likely remain unchanged. Putin likely hopes to stall the conflict, prevent a Ukrainian counterstroke, and — in time — let the context shift, awaiting a collapse in Western cohesion or perhaps even a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Now somebody is starting to see exactly whats up.)

(And it's exactly what I've been saying from the start, cause you know, I goy my own think tank and such :-).

"In other words, Putin is playing for time."

(The longer it goes on the more it benefits Russia. Been saying that for a long time too, that's why, in the eyes of Putin, it is a "Special Military Operation", using volunteers, Chechens, the Wagner group, Eastern Ukraine pro-Russian militias, etc.)

"Hence the nuclear threats the Kremlin makes today must be taken seriously."

(Amen to that. How long do you think countries are going to keep "tactical" nuclear weapons on the shelf for? Sooner or later one is going to get used.)

"Third, the U.S. must accelerate its transfer of air defenses to Ukraine. Russia must be denied the ability to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure as an escalatory outlet. Only air defenses can even the balance in this respect, ranging from Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Systems (NASAMS) to perhaps spare PATRIOT batteries and remaining Soviet-era air-defense equipment.

(Again, the question becomes: Why? With such overwhelming air superiority? Why would Putin let less than a divisions worth of soldiers make such gains? He's not worried about it because he knows doesn't have to be.)

"It is not that nuclear threats are a bluff, or that Russia is a paper tiger. The U.S. must do the hard work of ensuring escalation dominance and managing a nuclear crisis."

(Agreed, God help us all.)