Lil more info, FYI

 

A game of numbers: How air defense systems work and why Ukraine is eager for more protection

Iain Boyd, Professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

Tue, October 18, 2022 at 7:39 AM

"To understand Zelenskyy’s emphasis on air defense, it’s important to look at the types of air weapons that Ukraine faces and how air defenses work to counteract those threats. It’s also important to understand why this type of warfare is all about the number of assets each side has at its disposal."

Increased air attacks

On Oct. 10, 2022, Russia launched a large barrage of airborne weapons against a variety of targets in Ukraine. The types of weapons involved in the attack included short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

(Remember that, short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles )

"Ballistic missiles are accelerated by rockets from the ground or from aircraft, tend to follow a predictable path and are somewhat easier to track. Cruise missiles carry a propulsion system that allows them to maintain speed and fly more unpredictable flight paths, including trajectories that are close to the ground. They are much more difficult to detect, track and shoot down."

"Then, on Oct. 17, Russia launched a barrage of explosive drones at Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv. Explosive drones, known as loitering munitions, tend to be small weapons that are difficult to defend against. By circling overhead, they are able to surveil a region of interest, gathering information before identifying a specific target to attack. Russia has acquired explosive drones from Iran, according to U.S. officials."

"Air defense systems

The defense against all such air threats involves an integrated system of several elements.

Early warning radars located at Ukraine’s borders first detect the approach of missiles. These weapons are further tracked along their flight trajectories by a dispersed network of additional radars. The primary defensive countermeasure against ballistic and cruise missiles involves surface-to-air missiles (SAMs): You destroy a missile using a missile. This is no easy feat because the SAM must track, home in on and hit a high-speed target that may be changing direction."

"In the U.S., key strategic assets such as the White House are protected against aerial attack by the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS). NASAMS was designed to counteract a variety of incoming threats, including cruise missiles, aircraft and drones. Each NASAMS contains 12 interceptor SAMs. No information is available publicly on its effectiveness. NASAMS is one of the options being considered by the U.S. to help support Ukraine."

(Notice it didn't it protects from mention hypersonic weapons? Because it doesn't.)

"Another notable example of an air defense system is the Israeli Iron Dome. The system is designed to defend against rockets and artillery shells launched from up to 155 miles (250 kilometers) away. Each Iron Dome missile battery consists of three to four missile launchers, each with up to 20 interceptor SAMs.

The system is reported to have a 90% kill rate for rockets launched against Israel. Veteran national security correspondent Mark Thompson described Iron Dome as possibly the most effective missile defense system the world has seen."

(Already discussed that, its designed to shoot down slow, low flying, low yield missles/rockets made in garages in the West bank basically, not Russian cruise and balistic missiles. Again, no good options...)

"Both NASAMS and Iron Dome are reported to be effective against drones. However, SAMs are an expensive way to defend against such low-cost targets, and they could be overwhelmed by large numbers of drones. Directed energy weapons such as high energy lasers are being developed and deployed to provide a potentially more cost-effective approach to neutralizing low-cost drones."

(We got time to develop those? I'm glad we are and Ive read an article that was saying just how far along we are in their development but this conflict is right here right now. Again, going back to the Fionna Hill piece, "Time is not on our side.")

"A numbers game

"The significance of the plea by Zelenskyy for additional air defense systems can be understood in the context of a numbers game. Different air defense systems have a range of effectiveness against different aerial threats. However, none of the defense systems is 100% effective."

"Moreover, an adversary can significantly reduce the effectiveness of air defense by launching salvos of multiple weapons simultaneously. Therefore, an attacker can always overwhelm a defender if the attacker has more attack missiles than the defender has defensive missiles. Conversely, a sufficient number of defensive systems may cause an attacker to stop firing altogether. It becomes a war of attrition, with the winner being the side with the most missiles."

(Given his credentials I'm surprised he didn't mention that the missiles being launched are far more inexpensive than the SAM's used to try and shoot them down,  it becomes a game of economics as well.

"The primary defensive countermeasure against ballistic and cruise missiles involves surface-to-air missiles (SAMs): You destroy a missile using a missile. This is no easy feat because the SAM must track, home in on and hit a high-speed target that may be changing direction."

And that is why they are so much more expensive.)

"Ukraine likely has sufficient air defenses to protect strategic military targets such as command and control centers and ammunition dumps. They do not have coverage of many other key assets such as transportation hubs and power and water facilities, the types of targets Russian forces have been targeting in recent days."

"Should the West agree to provide significant numbers of air defense systems to Ukraine, it could significantly change the course of the conflict. At some point, Russia will have to confront the finite depth of its missile stockpile."

(And the west will have to confront the high cost of providing such systems to Ukraine as well. What  we need to provide them is far more expensive and difficult to produce than the missiles russia is using. It's an economic war of attrition and quite frankly we dont know how many precision Guided Missiles Russia has, it obviously has more than we thought it did just a few days ago would be my contention given the recent attacks. Article goes on to state: The number of remaining Russian high-precision missiles is already reported to be running low. And then links to the article I just did a piece on previous to this one entitled: I thought they were out of missiles? )

"Without the ability to wear down and demoralize Ukraine through airstrikes, Russia would be faced with the much more daunting and drawn-out prospect of relying solely on ground forces to grind out its objectives."

(Just like the Fiona Hill interview, not one mention of the Hypersonic missiles that have already been employed by Russia in this conflict, which was the first time they have ever been used in a theatre of war. Not one mention of their use, not one mention of any possible defense against them. This is from: "Iain Boyd, Professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder" who BTW  according to the article, "receives funding from the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Energy, NASA, Lockheed-Martin, and L3-Harris." The question to me is: Why no mention of Hypersonic missiles previous use in this conflict and why no mention of defensive systems that can be employed against them? I think the answers are glaringly obvious. There isn't one...yet anyway...and we dont have the time to develop a defense against a technology we haven't even mastered ourselves and the powers that be know this, they just dont want you to know.

(Everybody should be required to watch a documentary on the siege of Leningrad to see just what lengths the Russians will go to tp persevere to accomplish their goals. They lost 28 million people in WW2, to them? they are out to redo the out come of that conflict to terms more favorable to them and they just happened to pick the timeframe when we are at our weakest.

God speed everybody.

Journey well my friends.)

I love you baby.