Tons

 

of Financial stuff to get to today.

US consumer prices rise 6% at tricky time for Fed amid SVB fallout

"Data comes as central bank contends with broader concerns about how rising interest rates have affected lenders"

(YEAH it does...)

"US inflation was high enough in February to further complicate the path forward for the Federal Reserve as it contends with three bank failures and broader concerns about financial stability."

(First things first, "and broader concerns about financial stability" wasn't ever supposed to be a concern post financial crisis, we solved all of that, everythings better this time, nothing will ever happen etc...)

"The consumer price index rose 6 per cent year on year last month, following a 0.4 per cent increase from the previous month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. That is a step down from the annual 6.4 per cent pace registered during January, though still stubbornly high."

"Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, “core” CPI climbed another 0.5 per cent in February, up from last month’s 0.4 per cent rise and above economists’ expectations. On an annual basis, it rose 5.5 per cent, only 0.1 percentage point less than January’s year-on-year pace."

(Core (vs Headline which INCLUDES food and energy0 is the one you have to watch out for and I've said before which ever one is going the direction the Fed wants you to feel good about? Thats the one they will point to while the other one is going in the opposite direction, or barely moving at all:

to wit:

United States Core Inflation Rates (1957-2023)

Reading the #'s left to right = Jan through Dec of that year.

 March 2021 =1.6

April 2021 = 3.0

The one article I read a long time ago said right there is where the fed should have jumped on raising rates and kill inflation right then and there before it got out of hand. I dont think it would have worked because raising rates cant fix the myriad of problems we face (worker shortages, too much $ printed on and on etc the Fed simply doesn't have the tools to fix whats wrong so it's doing the only thing it can (along with letting maturing bonds roll of it's balance sheet)… But you can see where the jump is and its right about the 1 year mark w/Covid. The Fed should have known right then what was happening and what it was up against. It either didn't or it did and knew it was powerless to fix. 

In either event? 

Same result.

2021 1.4 1.3 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.5  Avg 3.6

2022 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.7 Avg 6.2

2023        5.6 5.5 Avail.

                               April 12

The point I am getting at is this:

3 %  Core CPI in April 2021 

when it started to be a problem

Vs

5.5 % Core CPI now.

But all you are going to here about is how good that # is, or how inflation is still "sticky" etc.)

“Alas, the regional banking stress leaves next week’s decision as a wild card until there is greater clarity on the success of limiting the contagion to the rest of the banking sector”.

(How exactly are you going to do that?

Fed raises rates.

Banks heavy with long term Bonds cant afford to pay them off as they mature.

The lack of good options etc...

Everywhere we go we are cornered:

Revelation 6:16-17

They called out to the mountains and rocks, “Fall on us! Hide us from the face of the one who sits on the throne! Hide us from the anger of the Lamb! The great day of their anger has come. Who can live through it?”

You're not gonna be able to hide from this one...Your just not.)

"After a frenzied weekend during which no buyer emerged to absorb the beleaguered tech lender — which at that point had been taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — government authorities rushed to pull together a rescue package before Asian markets opened on Monday."

(But it's all good, nothing to see here, continue on...etc)

"Not only were deposits guaranteed in full for account holders at SVB and Signature Bank, another lender that was shut down by regulators on Sunday, but the central bank unveiled a new lending facility to ensure that “banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors”.

(It might as well be stimulus funds all over again by the time its done. The fed raises rates, it makes banks fail and then the FDIC comes in and takes it over and the fed creates "a new lending facility" Just creating more $ out of thin air while you're trying to fight inflation just aint gonna work y'all.)

"Ryan Sweet, of Oxford Economics, said “hot inflation” would keep pressure on the Fed to follow through with a rate rise next week. “Though stress has spiked in the banking system, the Fed is still highly focused on taming inflation,” he said.

(I bet he lives to regret ever saying that.)

"Roughly 70 per cent of the increase in headline inflation stemmed from housing-related costs, which rose 0.8 per cent between January and last month. Compared with the same time last year, they are up 8.1 per cent."

(Like I was saying: Thats the only time the article mentions the Headline # in the entire article BTW. And look how far down it is from the top.)

"Officials have said they are looking past this, however, because the so-called “shelter” metric tends to lag real-time data by several months.'

(Yeah...and...they dont want you to know about housing cost going up .8% from Jan to Feb. The Feds inflation rate is supposed to be 2% (it's arbitrary but seems to have worked over the years). In one moth we have half of the feds inflation target in one sector of the economy. No wonder Powell has pushed for a "supercore" inflation that strips out housing data as well. It like the thought process is: "Hey why are we stopping at just striping out food and energy in the "core" CPI? …Yeah lets go take out housing too. I tell you what, why not just strip out everything? What are you really measuring if you dont include food, energy and housing? Why even bother to generate the # at that point? They know housing is going to be an issue, its whay they wanna take it out of the calculation next.

Just gotta call it like I see it:

1 Thessalonians 5:3

While people are saying, “Peace and security,” destruction will come upon them suddenly, like labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will not escape.)

"Once housing costs are stripped out, core prices rose 0.4 per cent in February."

(.4 % x 12 months = 4.8 % annualized rate.

It's still (Core inflation) almost 2.5 x higher than the 2% target 

and that is with "housing costs are stripped out"

Now you see why they wanna eliminate the housing component?

I feel like I'm living in Moscow during the 80's sometimes, I really do, all this Orwellian nonsense nobody even bothers to try and see through anymore.)

"More worryingly, services-related costs were elevated in February, including a 1.1 per cent increase in transportation-related costs for the month."

In just one year, the central bank has lifted its benchmark policy rate from near zero to almost 4.75 per cent — a historically aggressive pace that some believe also contributed in part to SVB’s demise given its holdings of long-term fixed-rate bonds and lack of protection against rising rates."

Question is:

Whos next?

And how many more.

It's not an "If".

It's a "When."

"Mom always said you better have some $ saved..."

None but a very few at the top are ever going to have enough. What good is $ if your currency is worthless? All you got is more of something that's not worth anything than other people. "Well I'll sell my...". 

Really?

To who exactly?

To the guy with more of the worthless something than the other guys?

Interesting...

I reiterate:

Revelation 6:16-17

They called out to the mountains and rocks, “Fall on us! Hide us from the face of the one who sits on the throne! Hide us from the anger of the Lamb! The great day of their anger has come. Who can live through it?”