I

 

Ukrainian optimism fades at start of another winter of war

do not enjoy or take any delight in what I have to tell you.

I really dont.

It's not me being proven right.

Accept it or dont.

Not gonna change whats gonna happen.

"Rumours of tensions at the top, 

exhaustion after two years of fighting 

and frustration with allies dampen the mood in Kyiv"

"The much-anticipated summer counteroffensive has been thwarted by impenetrable Russian minefields and fortifications. There are rumours of tensions in Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s team, and of a rift between the president and his commander-in-chief, which were reinforced late on Sunday when Zelenskiy fired the head of Ukraine’s military medical forces and called for operational changes in the army."

"The exhaustion of two years of fighting, the continued loss of life at the front and frustration at the slow pace with which western partners continue to provide weaponry 

(Because they know how this ends.)

have combined so that for the first time since the early stages of the war, some voices have quietly pondered the possibility of ceasefire negotiations, 

(They will not happen.)

while accepting they would be risky and could benefit Russia.

"Then there is the horror unfolding in the Middle East, which has taken attention away from Ukraine and slowed down flows of ammunition. There is also increasing “Ukraine fatigue” in western capitals, as well as the looming prospect of a second term for Donald Trump in the US, which could upend support from Kyiv’s biggest ally."

"On Monday morning, the US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit partly aimed at reassuring Ukrainian leaders of Washington’s continued support, but renewed funding plans for Ukraine are proving hard to get through Congress amid Republican opposition and there are fears that it will only get harder as next year’s election gets closer."

"There are a few bright spots, too. On the battlefield, news that Ukrainian troops have dug into positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region, possibly opening up a path for a push towards Crimea, as well as Ukraine’s success targeting the Russian Black Sea fleet. Diplomatically, the EU’s announcement that it plans to begin membership talks with Ukraine brought much-needed cheer."

"At the same time, the exhaustion of those who have been at the front since the start of the conflict, the difficulty in mobilising new recruits and the failure of this summer’s counteroffensive to take back territory have led to some cautious voices suggesting that a change of tack is required."

“The choice is very simple. If we are ready to send another 300,000 or 500,000 lives of Ukrainian soldiers to capture Crimea and liberate Donbas, and if we get the right number of tanks and F16s from the west, we can do this,” Omelyan said. “But I don’t see the 500,000 more people ready to die and I don’t see the readiness of the west to send the type and quantity of weapons we would need.”

(It's over.

And it has been for a while.)

"Still, a recent interview with Zelenskiy by the journalist Simon Shuster, who has written a forthcoming biography of the president and has enjoyed unusually close access to his team, suggested that even within Zelenskiy’s inner circle there were people who doubted his messianic belief in Ukraine’s victory.

"Shuster quoted a frustrated Zelenskiy aide who said the president was delusional about the prospect of victory on the battlefield. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that,” said the aide."

(The rest of the world has known that for a long time already.)

"Conflict in the Middle East

The Hamas attacks on Israel and Israeli assault on Gaza in response have proved tricky for Ukraine in three ways. Firstly, the war in the Middle East has meant that for perhaps the first time since February 2022, Ukraine has not been the main foreign policy issue on most western leaders’ minds for a sustained period of time."

"Secondly, it has meant a decrease in ammunition supplies to Ukraine, according to Zelenskiy, which has exacerbated an already crucial problem for the Ukrainian military."

"Congress has been unable to pass a new bill on aid to Ukraine since September, with a chunk of Republicans opposed, meaning military shipments to Kyiv have been reduced. Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, travelled to Washington last week to meet Democrats and Republicans in the hope of underlining the importance of continued weapons deliveries."

Lloyd Austin visits Ukraine as US sends $100M more in dwindling aid

"As of this month, the Defense Department has spent more than 95% of the congressionally approved $62.3 billion for Ukraine military assistance, according to the Pentagon. Without a promise of future funding, the department admitted earlier this month that it has begun slowing delivery of aid."