Lessons

 

9 Lessons from Iranian and Houthi Attacks on Ships in the Red Sea

Low cost simplified cruise missiles

Essentially it gives the Houthis a very low cost long ranged land attack capability, but with a smaller warhead. And as to be expected in the Houthi arsenal, there is an anti-ship version. This approach is different from Western countries which tend to buy very few, yet expensive, cruise missiles.

Use of drones against ships

Generally they have been perceived as only being useful against fixed targets. But Iran has demonstrated that they can also hit ships at incredible ranges. At least two ships have been hit, one at extreme range.

Their usefulness against warships is likely to be very limited but against unarmed merchant ships they are a real concern. Various OWA-UAVs are being used by the Houthis against ships. Many miss or get shot down, but they are likely to get better.

Even ‘dark ships’ can be seen

Ships which do not transmit their location on AIS (automated identification system) are harder to locate and identify. This is particularly true for people relying on open-source intelligence (OSINT). But the effectiveness of ‘going dark’ against a determined adversary with eyes on the water, and various sophisticated means, is limited. Ships cannot easily hide their presence in the shipping lanes.

This also implies that if the Houthis hit a Russian or Chinese ship in the Red Sea, they meant to do so.

Merchant ships are highly survivable, and missiles rarely sink ships

"Modern merchant ships are built with survivability in mind. Perhaps not against these threats, but certainly in a way which makes them hard to sink. And their layout, with the superstructure well aft of their center of mass (where missiles typically aim), means most hits are where the cargo is. There is still a significant risk if they are hit by missiles, but in practice few if any will be sunk."

(Not the point.

Potent enough to make you go the long way around is the point.)

The importance of Air Defense for naval vessels

Warships are threatened by sustained multi-vector attacks with drones, sea skimming missiles and ASBMs. 

(Anti ship Ballistic Missile

Everybody that thought The Houthis would be the first to use one in conflict raise your hand.

Exactly.

First Operational Use in War

In late November 2023, during the Red Sea tensions caused by the continuation of the 2023 Gaza war, the United States Central Command in the Middle East, CENTCOM, reported that two ballistic missiles had been fired at the USS Mason destroyer from areas controlled by Yemeni militias.[13][14]

In January 2024, at the same time as US and British airstrikes on Yemen, US President Biden confirmed that the Yemenis had used anti-ship ballistic missiles for the "first time in history")

"Many, maybe most, warships are too lightly defended to operate in this threat environment.

Even today few warships have defenses against ASBMs. For many navies the implementation of this capability is progressing much slower than the threat is proliferating.

Warships also need to intercept missiles aimed at other ships. This stretches engagement envelopes and magazines.

Deterrence is of limited use against an antagonist with little to lose

(Entire reason for doing this piece.

They (Houthis) will fight to the last man.

They dont care and 

they have nothing else to live for.

So why not.

The only way your going to stop this is with "Boots on the ground" which seems to be exactly what Russia, China, Iran and North Korea want.

Hello WW3 when it happens.

How much longer you really think we got?

They are not going to stop no matter what we do.

They have been under aerial bombardment for close to nine years from the Saudis These things are small light weight and mobile. Theyre used to moving them around on the ground playing wack a mole if you will.

THERE SIMPLY ARE NO GOOD OPTIONS.)

"When the attacks begun there were calls for Western countries to take military action against the Houthis. Many observers expected Tomahawks at dawn, and were frustrated when strikes took months to materialize. But many observers were unsure that strikes would make much difference. And as we have seen, the attacks continue."

"The latest strikes, which target missiles before they can be launched, are probably more useful. But they cannot be expected to catch every launch, and the Houthis can modify their methods to reduce the risks. For example, launching ASBMs from deep inland."

Don’t Underestimate Iranian Technology

(What were the sins of your sister Sodom again?

Arrogance was #1.)

"Iran is capable of innovation, and of developing effective and smart weapons, particularly in the asymmetric arena. Credit where credit is due. There are some serious threats hidden behind the hype and grandiose claims."

(They aren't scared of us anymore.)

"So far, no ships have been sunk. Possibly this is because they are trying not to. There are at least indications of weapons and tactics designed to reduce the risk of sinking the targeted ship. 

(Not the point.

Potent enough to make you go the long way around is the point.

Along with using your ships interceptor missiles.)

This suggests that their goals are being met merely by presenting a credible threat.

"It seems likely that they may try to sink warships however. And the Iranian technology is, in principle, able to achieve it."

It is hard to predict the future

"Few would have imagined that the first use of ASBMs would be by the Houthi Movement in the Red Sea.

(Exactly)

There are still several capabilities that Iran is believed to have, but which haven’t been used. And Iran and the Houthis can become more effective at these strikes if they learn from them. And there’s every indication that they will. This conflict appears far from over, and the next surprise could be as soon as tomorrow.'

Is your soul ready for whats coming?

Is it?