The Seafloor Is Now a Theater of War — and America Is Not Prepared
National Review March 10th
"Were not prepared will be a recurring theme here today...)
"Our foes are rapidly increasing their ability to target and take down
the undersea lifelines that we rely on every day.
We must take the threat seriously."
The past few weeks have seen plenty of news out of Yemen, where the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking commercial shipping and American warships in the Red Sea. But one aspect of their campaign deserves closer attention, as it may change warfare as we know it. In addition to attacking ships (one recently sank), the Houthis have destroyed four underwater cables in the Red Sea littoral.
(100% false, they dont have the capability to have done such a thing.
Its discussed farther in the article following this one,)
These cables, laid across the seabed, serve as key conduits between the billions of people who live in Asia, Europe, and Africa. At this time, about 25 percent of all internet traffic between those continents has been disrupted, while the companies that own the cables state that they will take months to repair. Houthi leadership has rejected the evidence of its culpability, but this is par for the course when it comes to undersea sabotage, a prime form of gray-zone activity.
"And the world of seafloor warfare is just ramping up, given the target-rich environment. For all that we marvel at high-tech wireless and space technology, the more mundane-seeming infrastructure that lies beneath the waves serves a much greater purpose. Undersea infrastructure is necessary for modern civilization, acting as both a source and a conduit of energy and as the nervous system of global communications. The West’s enemies realize this already, and are acting accordingly. If the West doesn’t catch up, it will lose out in a critical dimension of global security.
(We got to many areas to "catch up" on in case you havent noticed.)
The deep oceans are replete with natural resources just waiting to be accessed by reliable technology. Oil and gas fields have been found and tapped in bodies of water as varied as the Gulf of Mexico and the Persian Gulf, while deep-sea mining of rare-earth metals such as cobalt is fast becoming a viable economic proposition. Enormous pipelines carry essential energy resources for hundreds of miles, delivering the fuel that powers 21st-century life. These pipelines can be found in nearly every major sea on the planet, from the Baltic and North to the Mediterranean and South China. Without them, hundreds of millions of people would suffer shortages, and costs would rise dramatically."
(What do you really think is going to happen?)
Most significant, however, are the undersea cables that transmit nearly all of the world’s information, allowing people and institutions to communicate,
conduct business,
(The $ goes over the wires people!
What do you think happens
when you swipe a card
or hold a phone to a magnegtic strip etc?)
and diffuse ideas across the world instantaneously. The nearly 900,000 miles of cables lain across the seabed carry data running the spectrum from social-media memes and family emails to diplomatic communiqués and military orders. Over $10 trillion in financial transfers cross these cables every day,
(See note above)
allowing the smooth and frictionless functioning of the global economy that we are so used to. A map of these cables resembles an anatomy textbook, with nodes and connections proliferating across the planetary body."
"Suffice it to say, modern life would be impossible without the proper functioning of undersea infrastructure. And therein lies the problem. That network is under unprecedented threat."
The danger comes not only from newfangled technology such as unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs) but also from more-traditional methods. Pipelines carrying natural gas between European nations have been sabotaged by conventional means in the past few years. The Nord Stream pipelines linking Russia and Germany and the Baltic-connector pipeline connecting Finland to the wider European gas-distribution network
(Everybody forgets about that one.)
were damaged in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Neither event has been conclusively explained. In the former case, Ukrainian special forces have taken the blame, while in the latter, a Chinese commercial vessel seems to be the culprit. The inconclusiveness of these investigations is precisely the point, as there is almost always a degree of plausible deniability behind seabed action."
"Gray-zone activities on the ocean floor are happening with even greater frequency when it comes to subsea cables. The cable business has historically been dominated by a few large companies based in Europe, Japan, and the United States, but this is fast changing. Huawei, the Chinese Communist Party’s pet telecom company, has dramatically expanded its investment in subsea cable infrastructure and in the means to lay and manage it, reaching nearly 10 percent of the global market in just ten years. Having the internal knowledge and capacity to work with subsea cable systems given China, no stranger to dual-use technologies, greater ability to weaponize the seafloor."
"This has already been demonstrated. The Chinese vessel blamed for the damage to the Baltic-connector pipeline also cut several key cables in the area, an unlikely accident.
(Not mentioned is the fact that there was a Russian ship
in the area at the same time as the Chinese one.)
"Chinese dual-use ships routinely disrupt subsea cables around Taiwan in preparation for their potential future invasion. The CCP’s militarization of atolls in the South China Sea puts it in excellent position to cut the plethora of cables traversing that key maritime corridor."
China is not the only hostile foreign actor seeking to damage undersea cables, seeing the action as a cost-effective and plausibly deniable means to hurt Western interests. Russia has long been a factor in this field, initially being fingered for the Nord Stream sabotage because of its history of undersea exploits. More recently, Moscow has sent its warships and spy vessels around the world, purportedly on regular training deployments or foreign visits. They do have a bad habit of loitering around important undersea cables, though. More concerning than these near-peer threats, however, is the danger represented by smaller actors such as the Houthis. Their intent and ability to destroy these cables has been amply demonstrated over the past few months and is a worrying sign for the future. Their attacks may seem minor, but if a terror group controlling relatively small swaths of coastline can damage this critical infrastructure, the threat has truly been democratized.
(It had to have been done undersea
and the Houthis just do not have that capability, see the article below.)
All is not lost, however. There is much that we can do to diminish the danger posed by our adversaries in this peculiar realm.
"To reinforce the security of undersea infrastructure, it is important to have robust public-private partnerships."
(Lord knows somebody gotta be
making some $ off of it somehow,)
"The vast majority of these cables and pipelines are privately owned, but their safety is a public interest; therefore, governments must operate in tandem with companies to secure these assets from attack."
(How exactly?
One might ask.)
Areas where this infrastructure sits should be heavily patrolled, especially where the seabed is relatively shallow and accessible.
(For how long and who pays for it?
Privately owned but the public foots the bill like always right?)
It is in these littoral regions and maritime chokepoints that sabotage is most easily undertaken, given the proliferation of seafloor infrastructure there. These patrols should be a far more frequent mission for Western navies and coast guards than they are today. Novel technology, including the aforementioned UUVs, can also be used to prevent such damage. For instance, the U.S. Navy is seeking funding for a high-tech espionage submarine that would monitor the ocean floor and detect sabotage. This is an excellent start, but a lone submarine, even with a large submersible drone fleet, cannot safeguard the panoply of undersea infrastructure. More of these vessels should be built, even if they lack some of the tech wizardry of the proposed submarine."
(WE AINT GOT THE TIME!)
"In terms of the infrastructure itself, several changes can be made to reduce the impact of potential assault. Existing undersea pipelines and cables should be monitored more extensively, not simply checked for outages.
(How and who pays?)
The surrounding waters should be proactively observed.
(See above)
"New subsea installations should be hardened to be made more resilient to simple damage such — as a common sabotage tactic — the dragging of an anchor."
(WE DONT HAVE THE TIME!)
"Companies and nations must develop a robust repair capability with the potential to reach any undersea infrastructure within a short time."
(WE DONT HAVE THE TIME!)
"That would require international cooperation and basing across the globe, something the U.S. is well placed to accomplish. Finally, we must build more redundancy into these crucial systems.
(BROKEN RECORD, TIME YO!)
"Government communications must be spread across various cables, supplemented by space-based relays, and sent in more than one fashion. Major pipelines and cables should be laid duplicatively, minimizing the risk of a single point of failure."
(BROKEN RECORD, TIME YO!)
America’s foes are rapidly increasing their ability to target and take down the lifelines that we rely on every day.
(BECAUSE THEY KNOW THERE IS LITTLE WE CAN DO ABOUT IT.)
"If we wish to retain our capacity for modern civilization,"
(We simply wont be the ones making that call.)
we must meet these threats where they lie: far beneath the waves."
Russia may have just carried out its first direct action against the West
Yahoo news 2/27
"So, quite a lot of countries could have done Nord Stream. But the Bab el Mandeb is different. The sea there is crawling with international warships, all scanning their radar with great vigilance, including a US Navy carrier which will be keeping an E-2 Hawkeye radar plane aloft round the clock. Any surface vessel acting suspiciously there would very quickly find helicopters and fast rigid inflatables full of heavily armed, unsympathetic people all over it. So far there has not even been any apparent attempt to lay drifting mines, which would be a lot easier.
So cable cutting in the Bab el Mandeb would really need to be done entirely from underwater - it's in a different league to Nord Stream.
(This is an article from when the Houthis supposedly cut communications lines.
It's pretty much saying the Houthis and the Iranians didn't have the capacity to do so
and that only certain countries do.
And we don't have this type of capacity either.
Opps)
"They (the Russians) have a dedicated, highly secret naval sub-sea agency - the Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research, aka GUGI - and specially equipped nuclear-powered submarines dedicated to such tasks. Calling it 'greyzone' encourages the wrong mindset when it comes to countering it and being ready to do it ourselves, which should also be considered similarly normal activity for all Western navies."
Navy 30-year shipbuilding plan relies on more money, industry capacity
Defense News Mar 20 2024
"The U.S. Navy sets a fleet goal of 381 ships, up from 373, in a new long-range shipbuilding plan.
The service expects to reach this goal by 2042
(Seriously?
Everybody that thinks that is gonna happen raise yourhand.
Exactly.
2042?
We simply aint got the time.)
if it can grow both its shipbuilding budget
and the industrial base’s capacity,
it says in the document."
(Funny thing about infrastructure
you gotta build it before you need it.
Cause if you try to build it after you need it?
Its already to late...
Who said that anyway?
:-)
“This profile assumes industry eliminates excess construction backlogs and produces future ships on time and within budget.
(When has that ever happened?)
This profile reflects
growth matched to planned,
but not yet achieved,
industrial capacity,”
the document notes."
(Translation?
Its a fairytale.)
The Age of the Aircraft Carrier Is Over
The National Interest
February 29, 2024
(WRONG!
It's been over
for a while now.
Told my son this like four or five years ago for goodness sakes.
the fact that you are hearing it here and now tells you just how bad it really is.
We are going to watch them go down at a clip you just would have never thought imaginable.)
"Summary:
The article critiques the United States' continued investment in aircraft carriers, likening them to obsolete battleships of the past due to their vulnerability to modern missile technologies. It highlights the shift in naval warfare, emphasizing that countries like China and non-state actors like the Houthi Rebels have developed cost-effective anti-ship missiles capable of challenging US naval supremacy, particularly in regions like the Indo-Pacific and the Red Sea. The author advocates for a strategic pivot towards submarines and more agile surface ships, alongside investment in hypersonic and space weapons, to maintain the US military's global effectiveness against evolving threats."
(When all of the best options are years if not decades away?
and war is looming around the corner?
It aint to hard to figure out how this works out.)
"Today, the average cost for building a nuclear-powered, aircraft carrier—a supercarrier, such as America’s new Gerald R. Ford-class is upwards of $13.3 billion. It costs an additional hundreds of millions of dollars to maintain. Previous models are only slightly less expensive."
"Yet, their complexity and exorbitant cost make them not only tempting targets for rivals, but if they were to be destroyed or seriously damaged in combat, it would effectively make them a wasting asset. Billions of dollars would be lost and the US Navy’s power projection abilities would be seriously degraded."
"Much as the battleship was the byproduct of a bygone era when World War II erupted in the Pacific, the modern aircraft carrier is symbol of a long-gone age. Today, massive arsenals of long-and-intermediate-range missiles can overwhelm the shipborne defenses of aircraft carriers and other US Navy warships. China has become a master at building their antiship capability to such a degree that many naval warfare specialists fear that the aircraft carrier would be render combat ineffective, if—and when—a Sino-American war erupted over Taiwan.
(Id go with when
and not if if I was you.)
"And it’s not only rising great powers, like the People’s Republic of China that have created a massive arsenal of cheap (compared to the cost of US aircraft carriers) antiship missiles that can completely upend U.S. defense policy for the Indo-Pacific."
"It's tinpot, two-bit, third-rate terror organizations, like the Iran-backed Houthi Rebels in Yemen, who have proven the asymmetrical advantages that antiship missiles provide to enemies of the United States. For a fraction of the cost of US aircraft carriers, the Houthis proved in late 2023 that they can hold the entire US Navy at bay with such missiles."
(You might wanna wake up to the world you are living in.)
"But the presence of Iran-provided antiship missiles under the control of the Houthis was more than enough to keep the bulk of the US Navy away from intervening against the terrorists in the Red Sea."
"Therefore, the terror on the Red Sea lasted far longer than it ordinarily would have. The hesitancy of the Pentagon to deploy the expensive naval assets under their command in the region to stop the terrorist attacks on the high seas not only increased the bite of the terror attacks on everyone, but it sent a signal to rivals, like China, that they’ve little to fear from America’s once fearsome aircraft carrier fleet."
"What’s needed instead is a refocus of US strategy to enhance and expand America’s submarine fleet. Smaller, more maneuverable, and harder-to-destroy surface warships should be invested in as well. Meanwhile, as both missiles and hypersonic weapons become the norm for modern warfare, rather than blowing America’s budget on legacy systems that won’t be useful, the Pentagon should be investing in its own hypersonic weapons and new age space weapons to counter the threats that its forces are facing globally. Until these actions are taken by the Pentagon, the US military’s effectiveness against its foes will continue to be degraded.
(See the "Funny thing about infrastructure" comments above...)
Oh it just keeps getting better...
That's sarcasm BTW)
Rearming US Navy ships at sea is no longer an option, but a necessity
March 5th 2024
(Cause that is something that is easy to do...again, sarcasm...)
"Today the only way to reload vertical launching system cells — the mainstay of the Navy’s front-line warship — is to pull into port, often taking warships out of action for weeks at a time.
Consider the situation in the Red Sea. For our Navy’s warships engaging the Houthi rebel group, reloading VLS cells would require a transit through the Suez Canal to ports in Greece or Italy, about 2,000 miles or more away. This lost time, under persistent Houthi attacks, proves this ability to reload underway is no longer a luxury — it’s a necessity."
"Reloading the most capable missile defense weapon — the RIM-161, also known as the Standard Missile-3 — into one of these vertical cells is a delicate matter. It requires precisely loading a 1.5-ton, 21.5-foot-long missile into a tube built into the hull of the ship. At sea, the movement caused by even calm seas makes this nearly impossible to do without damaging the missile."
(Imagine doing that in rough seas under attack.)
"A 2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments study found a VLS reload-at-sea capability could provide the equivalent of an additional 18 destroyers or cruisers in a Pacific war scenario. With China’s modern navy larger than ours and backed by a massive shipbuilding industry, every one of our warships must be kept in the fight. As such, the U.S. Navy can ill afford to lose one warship for weeks to arrive at a safe Pacific harbor to reload weapons."
(With the range of Chinas missiles?
Where's the safe harbor gonna be exactly?)
Navy ousts USS Ohio commanding officer
Navy Times March 13th 2024
"The Navy fired the commanding officer of the guided-missile submarine Ohio’s gold crew on Monday."
"The service said it removed Capt. Kurt Balagna, who has served as the commanding officer of the vessel since at least 2021, due to a “loss of confidence in his ability to command.”"
"Balagna previously served as the commanding officer of the fast attack submarine Annapolis and the executive officer of the fast attack submarine Virginia, according to his Navy biography."
"He is at least the third commanding officer the Navy has relieved this year. The Navy removed the commanding officer of the Japan-based destroyer Howard in February, and the commanding officer of the guided-missile submarine Georgia in January."
(One is an accident, two is a trend, three is a pattern.
At this point?
You might wanna ask yourself just WTF is happening.)
Report to Congress on Navy Next-Generation Attack Submarine
USNI (US Naval Institute) MARCH 22, 2024
"The Navy’s FY2025 30-year (FY2035-FY2054) shipbuilding plan states:
“The delay of SSN(X) construction start from the mid-2030s to the early 2040s presents a significant challenge to the submarine design industrial base associated with the extended gap between the Columbia class and SSN(X) design programs, which the Navy will manage.”
(So much for the:
"Well we just need
to build more of them"
argument. Good luck.
See notes above about not having the time and needing to have built infrastructure before you need it.)
Forget UFOs, Ex-US Navy Officer Warns Of Unidentified Underwater Objects
NDTV March 19, 2024
Retired US admiral Tim Gallaudet
(That's not exactly some flunky off of the street.)
said these unknown objects can sometimes travel in the deep ocean waters without ever emerging.
"A retired US admiral has now warned about unidentified submarines saying they pose "real threat" to international maritime security.
Rear Admiral and oceanographer Tim Gallaudet authored a white paper for Sol Foundation, a think tank, in which he mentioned that unidentified submersible objects (USOs) need urgent attention."
"We have less research on transmedium UAP and USOs than is ideal. These underwater anomalies jeopardise US maritime security, which is already weakened by our relative ignorance about the global ocean," he said in the report."
"The ex-US military official said these unknown objects can sometimes travel in the deep ocean waters without ever emerging."
"Gallaudet said a lot of research has been happening on what's going up in the sky, which means that major powers could be making moves underwater without barely anyone knowing."
"He also pointed towards the ongoing war in Ukraine the Israel-Hamas war, as well as Iran's proxy conflicts in the Red Sea, North Korea's ever-increasing nuclear arsenal, and China's dangerous moves towards Taiwan, calling them "proliferating and overwhelming" threats."
"One threat that may be even greater than all these is largely unseen: the worldwide network of undersea cables that provide the backbone of global communication and information
(Translation? Money transfers.)
transfer,"
Gallaudet said in his report while mentioning the abundance of "soft" challenges.
"This vast complex of seabed infrastructure underpins global commerce, military readiness and logistics, and the internet itself. To be sure, this threat and the others outlined above paint a problematic picture for maritime security," it added.
"Gallaudet further claimed that the US government is "not sharing all it knows" on UAPs and USOs - making it difficult to tackle security threats across the planet's oceans."
(Like I said, that's a retired US Admiral
not exactly some flunky off the street.)
New Navy Long-Range Shipbuilding Plan Details
19 Ship Decommissionings in FY 2025
MARCH 19, 2024 USNI
"Included in the plan details is the complete list of 19 decommissionings the service is requesting in Fiscal Year 2025. As part of the budget rollout last week, the Navy highlighted ten ships it would retire early but did not name the remaining nine set to leave the fleet."
(I wonder why?)
"Among the nine the Navy didn’t name as part of the FY 2025 submission is Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Helena (SSN-725). The nuclear attack boat completed its last deployment in 2017 before entering a maintenance period at Newport News that was completed in 2022. It’s unclear whether the submarine will deploy again ahead of its planned decommissioning. A submarine force spokesperson told USNI News on Tuesday the command intends to “fully employ USS Helena until the boat’s decommissioning date.”
(Five years...for maintenance?
And we are just gonna build more of em?
Without the capacity to do so?
I wrote on here a while back we dont have the capacity to maintain our fleet of subs
let alone build more and give some to the Australians.
See AUKUS)
"Other ships not named last week but scheduled for decommissioning include nuclear attack boats USS Pasadena (SSN-752) and USS Topeka (SSN-754)..."
(Starting to see the picture emerging yet
of just what dire straights we are in?)
The United States Must Improve Its Shipbuilding Capacity
2/2024
(Funny thing about infrastructure I think I remember somebody sayin...)
"Today, China’s shipbuilding industry and the growing capacity of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) gives China an overwhelming strategic advantage against the United States in a potential sustained conflict. To withstand the bow wave, the U.S. Navy must field complete and proven capabilities in an efficient, effective, and timely manner—which will require addressing shortcomings in ship design, production, maintenance, and repair, as well as challenges with the supply chain and human capital."
"China has 46.59 percent of the global market and is the largest builder, with South Korea second at 29.24 percent, and Japan third with 17.25 percent. The United States has a relative insignificant capacity at 0.13 percent."
"The greatest challenge the Navy faces in preparing for a potential war with China is reestablishing its ability to build, maintain, and repair ships.
(Were screwed basically...)
"China subsidizes its shipping industry, with 20 large shipyards building military and civilian commercial ships and 140 dry docks to enable rapid expansion and a massive maintenance and damage repair capability."
(They been getting ready for this moment a long time.
We haven't.)
"On a labor and construction cost basis, U.S. shipyards cannot compete with foreign yards. Without a steady supply of contracts, they cannot maintain the industrial infrastructure or employ skilled workers."
"The shipyards and suppliers do not have alternate customers to take up the slack if the government interrupts a contract. If the government asks a builder to speed up, there is no ready pool of skill workers or equipment in standby. If the U.S. government cannot provide the naval contracts to support the shipyard and its workers, it will need to subsidize the yards to build other commercial ships."
(Wy did we quit doing that in the 80's again?
Oh...yeah...greed.)
"The United States does not have the shipyard capacity to build new ships and fully maintain or repair ships it currently holds in inventory. Given current shipyard capacity, the Navy is estimated to be 20 years behind in maintenance work. Viable ships are being decommissioned because of the inability to maintain, overhaul, modernize, or complete service life extensions. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is concerned about the backlog, noting in a 2021 report, “In light of ongoing shipyard challenges to keep up with regular maintenance demand, battle damage repairs may further exacerbate these challenges.”
(May? More like will.)
The report further noted, “The rise of 21st century adversaries capable of producing high-end threats in warfare—referred to as great power competitors—revives the need for the Navy to reexamine its battle damage repair capability to ensure it is ready for potential conflict.”
(We are nowhere near ready.)
So there is your current snapshot of the US Navy.
This is what is going to fight a new navy in her backyard
half way around the world?
Its a blood bath before it ever gets started.
Our navy aint ready
but
Is your soul ready?
Cause it's coming.
(End times)
Ready or not.
And there isn't
anything
anybody
can do about it.
See also:
How a sailor shortage is crippling ship maintenance at sea
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