It's very much worth a read

 

The West is sleepwalking into nuclear disaster

"Our leaders must let Israel eliminate the menace of Iranian atomic weapons for the longer term."

(What makes you think "the West" is going "to let" Israel do anything?

This decision has already been made and now were just waiting for it to be executed.)

"As Israel decides how to respond to the 180 ballistic missiles fired from Iran last week, the Iranian nuclear weapons programme is centred in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s gunsights."

(It most certainly is and with good reason.)

"The West, through subtle diplomacy – and no doubt even subtler spycraft – has thus far prevented the ayatollahs from gaining the ultimate weapon to subjugate the Israeli state and the West."

(Hey, all you hippy-trippy happy sack playing frisbee throwing peaceniks out there, you ever even considered what your world would look like with a nuclear armed Iran in it? This is what you want? How are you purposing to do something about that? Huh?)

"Until October 7 2023, the Middle Eastern melting pot of hate and distrust has simmered just below critical, but it is now set to explode."

(You can count on it. 

There's a book that says so.

Where are all you 35 year old internet know it alls saying,

"Oh they just fight over there forever" 

types now?

This is what the last 45 years 

(since the Iranian revaluation in 79

and? one could argue,

 all of history for that matter, 

see the book above) 

has been leading to .)

"It must learn to place defence above any desire to appease the hard Left and the dinner party woke..."

(The dinner party woke lol.

Thats fuckin great.) 

"There is much talk about the existential threat to the Israeli state of the war with Iran. Less discussed is the existential threat to the rule of the ayatollahs if they cannot protect Iran from Israeli attack, which seems increasingly likely."

(100% agree, the attack on the nuclear program is coming, period. Whether it is successful and what happens afterwards are the real questions. Or as my son has told me. "Dad, every time after we talk, I go away thinking the world is far more f#$&@* up than I ever thought before.)

"Iran has two uranium mines and processing facilities, including three known uranium enrichment plants. Combined with its ballistic missile capabilities, it has all the ingredients for a viable nuclear weapon capable of striking Israel and the West."

(Damned if you do something about it, but also? the status quo can not keep being allowed to go on. "The lack of available good options tells you what time we are entering into." Somebody :-) is fond of saying. Remember when you were worried about inflation?)

"Iran has been in the nuclear arena since the 1950s."

(The US started Irans nuclear program under the Shah of Iran, before the 79 revolution. Chickens come home to roost much?)

"In recent years it has managed to avoid the closest scrutiny, especially when then president Trump withdrew his support for the Iran nuclear deal."

(Duh, that's why they weaponized their shit, and that's why Israel is gonna at least make the attempt to take it out (along with our and others help), all this Netanyahu talking to Biden yesterday is just the surrounding theatrics. And Trump wasn't the one who made that decision BTW. The people that make these kinds of decisions:

are of the same ilk, as the ones who made the decision to pull out of JCPOA. If you only knew how stupid Trump really is you would understand things a lot more. And no I don't like Harris either. Refer back to: "The lack of available good options..." etc.)

"It is highly possible that Putin, in return for supplies of weapons, may have given nuclear know-how to Iran, most especially as he wants Western eyes on the Middle East and not his misadventure in Eastern Europe."

(The know how Putin is giving them is the delivery mechanism. Having weapons grade material is one thing, having a device is one thing, having missiles is one thing, putting a nuclear weapon on a missile and having it work like you want it to is a whole different level of technical problems (the most difficult part of the process) and that's where they are in the process and that is what is going on w Russia exchanging technology for weapons.)

"However, with 95 per cent of Iranian missiles fired at Israel so far failing to reach their target, there is huge doubt that a nuclear tipped one would fare any differently."

(Why would it need to? Why wouldn't just getting close enough be good enough? Israel doesn't have that many interceptors for the type of missile that would deliver a nuclear payload. The whole strategy is to get them to use up their interceptors, thus making a nuclear payload much more likely to get through. Recent analysis of the last Iranian missile attack has shown Iran can get through Israel's air defenses.)

"More likely it would be destroyed above one of a number of Arab states. This would suit the ayatollahs as another method to ignite the Middle East. Hence the Iranian nuclear programme must be neutralised."

(100% agree! 

What is the other option at this point?

See: "The lack of available good options..."etc.)

"...for the ayatollahs to press the “red button” against Israel would not take much soul searching in Tehran. The mullahs see the destruction of Israel as their god-given task."

(Our neighbor:

"They are neither one gonna give in."

No.

No they most certainly are not.

They are gonna 

draw all the world

 into this conflagration 

right along with them.

Count on it.

Joel 3:2

I will gather all the nations and bring them down to the Valley of Jehoshaphat. There I will enter into judgment against them concerning My people, My inheritance, Israel, 

(and I go straight up, "body of true believers" 

NOT a specific political, geographical entity.)

whom they have scattered 

among the nations as they divided up My land.

Valley of Jehoshaphat

=

Valley of decision.

As in,

decision time.

Luke 21:20

Jesus Foretells Destruction of Jerusalem

“But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, 

then know that its desolation has come near

Revelation 16:14

For they are demonic spirits, performing signs, who go abroad to the kings of the whole world, to assemble them for battle on the great day of God the Almighty

etc, etc, etc...

Hey?

Lets check and see 

what Buddha had to say about it,

Or Muhammad.

Or the Anunnaki,

OR ANYBODY ELSE!)

"Many of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are as corrupt and as evil as their allies in Moscow, but with absolutely no regard for the second and third order implications of an Iranian nuclear strike. That could lead to a global nuclear conflict, as Israel would no doubt launch its own nuclear weapons towards Iran in return."

(Its exactly what is going to happen. Think I don't know why the looks on the faces at worship a few weeks ago when people figured out something? Think me and honey weren't planning on where to go 5 years ago or so, when the moment that is now upon us happens? 

Better fuckin wake up.)

"The whole planet wants a ceasefire and peace in the Middle East and

the only obvious route to it today

seems to be longer-term

elimination of Iran’s nuclear capability. 

(Agreed.)

"This is in the grasp of Israeli missiles

and fighter jets."

(Not exactly, but they do not need the 30,000 lbs bunker busters the NYT seems to think they do either.

The combination of 154 Tomahawks armed with bunker busters from the USS Georgia, along with Israel's newly developed bunker buster capabilities that can be launched from its fighters and demonstrated in the destruction of Hezbollah's HQs in Lebanon would seem to be capable of the task. The question becomes, how severely can Irans nuclear program be neutralized, and what follows after the attempt.)

"Iran without its terror proxies and nuclear weapons programme is a diminishing threat to the planet, which is in everybody’s interests."

(According to the same NYT piece referenced above, with Hamas and Hezbollah severely diminished? Another opportunity to even attempt such a strike (on Irans nuclear program) would be some 50 years away. You think Israel is gonna wait that long? I sure don't. The pager attack gave it away. You don't pull off a once in a life time attack and then not exploit (or attempt to anyway) the opening you just created. All this yesterday between Biden and Netanyahu was simply staged theatrics for the masses. The decision was made back in August when the chief of staff of both the IDF and the US armed forces met. Hell, was Biden even awake during his conversation with Netanyahu? Think this is an accident that its gonna happen right around election time? Remember who said that BTW.)

"Even if Biden and Starmer are not prepared to unshackle Ukraine against Russia, they must surely see the benefits of allowing Israel to neutralise the Iranian nuclear programme – and so bring the world back from the precipice of apocalypse for the foreseeable future."

Unfortunately?

Its gonna lead

right to

exactly

what they are trying

to prevent.

"bring the world back 

from the precipice 

of apocalypse."

Luke 21:22

For this is the time of punishment 

in fulfillment of all that has been written.

You can take it to the bank

or we wouldn't be going

where we are 

and we wouldn't have been 

talking about it

years in advance.

Godspeed.

I

 

used to be a really big fan of Robert Reich.

My Enthusiasm has waned somewhat over the years 

but he still makes some very valid points.

The US central bank is poised to cause untold hardship to millions of Americans

"The Federal Reserve chairman has admitted that at least 2 million people could lose their jobs if interest rates keep rising"

(Trust me they are going to,)

"Over the past year, the Fed raised interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, from near zero to more than 4.5%. But consumer spending isn’t slowing. It fell slightly in November and December but jumped 1.8% in January, even faster than inflation."

(That I found pretty surprising...at first...it will make more sense here in a minute...)

"A recent paper by a group of academic and Wall Street economists suggests that he will need to raise interest rates as high as 6.5% to meet his 2% target."

(They are going to have to get them above the rate of inflation otherwise they will never tame it and in that year when rates went from 9 to 4.5% The debt went up 20% over the next decade. We got a mini8mum of 7%...so add another 10% on to the debt next decade etc...How do you really think this all gets straightened out?)

"You see, the Americans who are doing most of the spending are not the ones who will be hit hardest by the rate increases. The biggest spenders are in the top fifth of the income ladder. The biggest losers will be in the bottom fifth."

"Widening inequality has given the richest fifth a lot of room to keep spending. Even before the pandemic, they were doing far better than most other Americans."

"The top fifth’s savings are still much higher than they were before the pandemic, so they can continue their spending spree almost regardless of how high the Fed yanks up rates."

"That spending is a big reason Powell and his colleagues at the Fed are having so much difficulty slowing the economy by raising interest rates (in addition to the market power of many big corporations to continue raising prices and profit margins)."

(Okay here's where he looses me somewhat 

by not suggesting that raising interest rates 

CAN NOT 

do anything to shrink the money supply 

which was the cause of inflation to start with.)

"Those higher rates are flowing back into the top fifth’s savings, on which they’re collecting interest. But yank up rates much more and we’ll impose big sacrifices on lower-income Americans."

(The lack of available good options tells you what time were approaching etc...)

"The study I mentioned a moment ago concludes that “there is no post-1950 precedent for a sizable central-bank-induced disinflation that does not entail substantial economic sacrifice or recession”.

(Others were saying it before they published their study.)

"There’s no reason for further hikes, anyway. Inflation is already slowing."

(A dip dont mean a trough yo...

Everybody already knows my thoughts on this.)

"He (Fed Chair Powell) should abandon the 2% target rate of inflation. There’s nothing sacrosanct about 2%. Why not four? Getting inflation down to 2% is going to cause too much pain for the most vulnerable."

(4% inflation still causes 2/3rds of what were now experiencing. Thats really what we want to become the new standard?

Double from what was acceptable before?

As stated above:

"The lack of available good options tells you what time were approaching etc")

I

 

heard about this on the radio  yesterday and the first thing that popped into my head was: 

"That is such a mistake right now."

DISCERNMENT ALERT

My thinking was A) It's not gonna make that much difference B) Were gonna need it more later than we do now. C) If the war in Ukraine is going to be over so quick like all the prognosticators are saying (except me and a few others) then why release 1,000,000 barrels a day for the next six months? and D) What happens at the end of the six months when the situation is worse than it is now? Then what?

That all went through my head upon hearing the announcement and not reading a thing about it until today

Oil prices slide as Biden announces largest-ever Strategic Petroleum Reserve release

“The scale of this release is unprecedented: the world has never had a release of oil reserves at this 1 million per day rate for this length of time. This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up,” the administration said in a statement.

"serve as a bridge till the end of the year..." 

Yeah...okay...right. See the comment a lil farther down in this piece.

"Gasoline prices have surged to record highs on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent supply concerns, driving spikes in inflation across the global economy."

(Well I wonder why on earth he ever invaded?)

"In a research note Thursday, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said the release from U.S. reserves would help the oil market toward rebalancing in 2022, but would not resolve its structural deficit.

“This would reduce the amount of necessary price-induced demand destruction, the sole oil rebalancing mechanism currently available in a world devoid of inventory buffers and supply elasticity,” Goldman Sachs said.

“This would remain, however, a release of oil inventories, not a persistent source of supply for coming years. Such a release would therefore not resolve the structural supply deficit, years in the making.”

"Ed Bell, senior director of market economics at Emirates NBD, told CNBC on Thursday that despite the record scale of the expected SPR release, an enormous downswing in its immediate aftermath would be unlikely.

“Markets are still going to be very much squarely focused on supply going forward and the lack of it that we’re going to be seeing from Russia, the incremental additions we’re going to be seeing from OPEC+ and so far the real lack of price response from U.S. producers to high prices,” Bell told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”

“For the longer term though, I do think this is a bit of a risky strategy for the U.S. to draw down on its SPR so heavily if you think that we’re going to be going into the more heavy use summer months in the United States, we’re going to be drawing down inventories just as we’re going to be needing them in a time of uncertain supply conditions.”

(Summer months? Summer months? Are you kidding me? What about when your military needs to access the SPR and it's not here? Then what?)

This is exactly what the war in Ukraine is all about. It really is. Breaking the West back with inflation and rising food and energy prices, as well as some other things, a buffer zone against future invasion, partial restoration of the Soviet Union ect.

Euro Zone Inflation Hits Another Record High of 7.5% as Russia-Ukraine War Pushes Up Energy Prices

"European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that "three main factors are likely to take inflation higher" going forward."

"She said "energy prices are expected to stay higher for longer," "pressure on food inflation is likely to increase," and "global manufacturing bottlenecks are likely to persist in certain sectors."

"This economic backdrop is leading consumers to be more pessimistic about their prospects going forward, too. "Households are becoming more pessimistic and could cut back on spending," Lagarde said in a speech in Cyprus on Wednesday."

"Households are becoming more pessimistic and could cut back on spending,"

(That's what were gonna be worried about right now? Consumer spending? Seriously? I'd accept Christ and get my heart right if I was you, I really would, right now, today, not a second longer)

"Lower spending could bring even further economic headaches, as businesses would be selling less, have less room to pay employees and would be less likely to invest."

(That was kinda the long game to start with yo...)

My barber buddy had a great question, "Well how much do we have in the SPR? (Strategic Petroleum Reserve).

"It is the largest known emergency supply in the world, and its underground tanks in Louisiana and Texas have capacity for 714 million barrels"

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (United States)

The world uses about 97 million barrels a day, so how much difference is it really going to make? One 97th?

If you can't tell by now that there are no more good options left on the table? Chances are you won't ever understand there are no good options left on the table. (Just think about interest rates and 2.5 % crashes the housing market (already showing signs BTW) and at 4.5% we will default on the INTEREST payment on the national debt etc).  And this is still just the beginning. It was the most jarring news to me I had heard in a long time. This is over 3.5x the next largest SPR drawdown in it's history. It's like burning a pile of cash to stay warm for a few minutes which could very well be here in the near future as well.

4-7 years to replace it is (SPR drawdown) what the oil people are saying, (Industry analysist on the radio yesterday) and were gonna blow through it in six months and its not going to make a hill of beans bit of difference. It's kinda like the corner we backed ourselves into with interest rates, only different :-).

"Two riders were approaching 

and the wind began to howl..."

Jeremiah 30:23-24

"Behold, the whirlwind of the Lord goeth forth with fury, a continuing whirlwind: it shall fall with pain upon the head of the wicked. The fierce anger of the Lord shall not return, until he hath done it, and until he have performed the intents of his heart: in the latter days ye shall consider it."

WHY?

 

First Thing: Markets on alert after US banks join forces to rescue First Republic

Do you/me etc.?

Have to continually go to foreign owned news sources to hear about certain matters?

"Global shares rise as $30bn lifeline for US bank eases fears of imminent collapse and Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, says US banking system ‘is sound’.

(The key word there is "imminent." The banking/financial  markets are "jittery" because they know whats coming. They just dont know when, but they know it's inevitable.)

"Large US banks – Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and others – have joined forces to inject $30bn into First Republic, which has had customers withdraw their money after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and fears that First Republic could be next."

(The big just keep getting bigger, just like we knew they would.)

"Cash-strapped banks have borrowed about $300bn from the Federal Reserve in the past week."

(Keep in mind a Billion?

Is 1000 million.

So that's 300,000 million they have borrowed...in a week.)

"Robert Kiyosaki is gonna be right:

"So they’re going to print more and more and more of this,"

(He held up a dollar when he said that).

"Nearly half the money – $143bn – went to holding companies for two major banks that failed in recent days, SVB and Signature Bank, triggering widespread alarm in financial markets. The Fed did not identify the banks that received the other half of the funding or say how many of them did so."

How in the world?

Do you expect people to believe:

"Janet Yellen, says US banking system ‘is sound’."

When the lack of transparency is just so overwhelming?

"The Fed did not identify the banks that received the other half of the funding."

(I mean...its just 157 Billion, 

only 157,000 million...

Whats the big deal? 

Who cares? Right?"

How many people you think know:

"The Fed did not identify the banks that received the other half of the funding or say how many of them did so."

?

The trajectory is set.

The financial markets know whats coming.

Like I said yesterday:

"Were are just now entering this iceberg armada."

This:

"The Fed did not identify the banks that received the other half of the funding or say how many of them did so."

Shows you they know there is a lot bigger problem than they are letting on to.

What is happening with Credit Suisse? 

US investors in Credit Suisse have hit the beleaguered Swiss bank with legal action, claiming it overstated its prospects before this week’s share crash. The lender suffered a rapid sell-off, with shares plunging on Wednesday by as much as 30% at one point after comments from Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank. Credit Suisse shares shed earlier gains this morning and fell 4%.

"claiming it overstated its prospects"

Yeah, that never happens right?

Banks overstating things?

The long and short of it is, 

Credit Suisse, 

Deutsche Bank 

and no telling how many others 

(the Fed doesn't want you to know)

are having their internal auditors 

"cook the books" 

so that external regulators will rubber stamp them 

when they conduct their "stress test" 

that they do periodically after the Financial crisis 

to make sure these banks dont go insolvent.

(Queue buddy's wife, seen TV show etc...)

The other part of that statement that concerns me is:

"The lender suffered a rapid sell-off, with shares plunging on Wednesday by as much as 30% at one point after comments from Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank.

(Why put that in your article?

And not say what the Saudi National Bank comments were?

I'll tell you what they were.

They said they are not going to invest in Credit Suisse’s any more.

(It's on here in one of these recent post about whats going on in the banking sector.

It is a matter of time before they collapse.

And Why do we still have troops, 

air defenses etc. in Saudi Arabia?

They night as well be in with the Chinese and Russians at this point.

Oh yeah...

because if we take our troops and military equipment out?

It creates a vacuum the Russians and the Chinese will step in and fill.

Lack of available good options any body?)

What is the US government saying about the crisis? Before the latest news Yellen assured Congress on Thursday that the US banking system was “sound”. She told the Senate finance committee: 

“I can reassure the members of the committee that our banking system is sound, and that Americans can feel confident that their deposits will be there when they need them.”

Then why did:

"The Fed did not identify the banks that received the other half of the funding or say how many of them did so."

"Were setting sail

to a place on the map 

from which no one has ever returned..."

Thats why your markets are so:

"jittery"

right now.

They know whats coming.

Matter of time.

And no 

rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic 

is gonna fix it.

(Which is exactly what this fed bail out of these banks is.)

At home last night I became even more convinced that the "markets" are "jittery"

because they know whats coming, even more so than I was yesterday while posting what I did.

NOW?

"The Fed 

did not identify the banks 

that received the other half of the funding 

or say 

how many of them did so."

Now I am even more convinced.

It's not an "if".

It's a 

"When"

?

If it's not in your possession?

It's not yours.

"More yet!"

 

My buddy would say if I was backing up in the truck

Or lifting up on something :-).

So yeah:

More yet about the $.

Weaponising US dollar and monetary policy risks setting the global economy on fire

April 22nd

(Could?

looks like it already has honestly.)

"When global finance is used to punish political adversaries and economic competitors rather than promote growth, it undermines a global public good"

"For the US too, a powerful currency is also a double-edged sword"

"With the world likely to head towards a recession, what is the future of the US dollar and monetary policy?

Two weeks ago, I explored how difficult it was to know where to put your money in a world turned upside down because of financial and geopolitical risks. There are no simple answers because how you allocate your money depends on your risk appetite and your exact circumstances, which is why broad strategies don’t work in times of massive change."

"Caught in a world between higher inflation, geopolitical risks and possible recession, central bankers in the advanced markets are rethinking what to do in a period when monetary policy has to respond to splits in global supply chains disrupted by tight labour markets and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."

(Somebody knew what they were doing and the time was right to do it. At some point you just have to face the facts and admit it to yourselves.)

"The global financial system is being split from a dollar-dominated system into one likely to be in blocs with different payment systems. The US dollar system will be dominant for a while yet, but the more the currency is used in terms of sanctions, the more users will want to move away from it."

(I agreed with that March 1, 2022, ask yourself, who else to you know that did?)

"Global finance is seriously conflicted 

as to its real objectives –

 promote growth, 

control inflation 

or go fight the next war."

That might be the most astute statement I've seen of our current situation in a long time.)

"Basically, the four top central banks – the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ) and People’s Bank of China – together run monetary policy for the world as they operate the key reserve currencies."

(Good point.)

"However, the Fed is clearly heads and shoulders above the rest because of the dominant position of the US dollar, which accounts for about 60 per cent of global foreign exchange reserves. The ECB has been expansionary, but the leading quantitative easing champion is the BOJ, whose balance sheet is now 125 per cent of Japanese GDP."

(The other guy on the Financial times piece said 55%, but then lowered it to 47% when analysing its purchasing power. Guess which # I would go with if I was you?

Yeah...

47%

couple that with:

With BRICS countries having more of global GDP?

 Than the G7?

 For the first time ever in 2022?

And hows that grabbing ya right about now huh?

Oh yeah, inflation has peaked BTW.

Sarcasm.)

"When the Fed, ECB and BOJ started on quantitative easing after the 2008 global financial crisis, their balance sheets increased six times from US$4.6 trillion at the end of 2007 to US$27.9 trillion at the end of 2020."

(An increase in $'s 6x over what previously existed, and in only 13 years, and people cant figure out what caused inflation?

They know.

They just dont want you too.

Inflation is always the RESULT of something that was done, it doesn't just happen on it's own.

Our only choice? 

Was to crash the system. 

QE, Bond purcahes, $ printing, all of it.

Our officilas knew where it was going eventually.

It was the only way we could limp our system along a lil farther.

To, as my son would say:

"It's ultimate eventuality."

which is where we are rn.)

"During this period, their total financial assets dropped as a percentage of total Group of 20 (G20) financial assets from 75.5 percent to 63.7 per cent. In the meantime, slower growth in those three economies meant their share of G20 GDP dropped from 66.1 per cent to 56.1 per cent."

(Aging populations aren't really good for growth BTW.)

"If you strip off the veil of money, you would discover that money and finance are like a shell game that hides what is happening in the real economy – the things that matter, such as jobs, food, health and so on. Essentially, life is about reciprocity – if you owe someone, you have to pay back sooner or later in material goods, services or just making that person happy."

(Oh its a shell game alright:

Mark Hanna: Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in circles. You know what a fugazi is?

Jordan Belfort: Fugayzi, it's a fake.

Mark Hanna: Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.")

"It is very powerful and can be weaponised, giving the US government the ability to sanction any dollar holders. However, the neocons in Washington tend to forget they are recommending the US fight World War III on a credit card."

(Not to mention 6500 miles across the pacific

against a modern reconstituted navy

250 miles from it's supply lines etc...)

"The US national debt is already at the same level in relation to GDP that it was at its peak at the end of World War II. At the same time, other people around the world likely understand that holding more US dollars could mean they are funding the next US aircraft that might bomb them to smithereens."

(Countries have woke up and the US weaponizing the $ has just accelerated that process. Seems like everything is in a state of "acceleration" post Covid doesn't it? I wonder why that could be? :-)

Building toward something :-)

Promise.)

"The conclusion is that if the US, European and Japanese central banks keep easing monetary policy to continue supporting their financial system and rescue their economy from recession, the implication is to weaken their currencies. If so, we could get a situation where everyone else starts to devalue their currencies, sparking a global race to devaluation will end up with stagnation and higher inflation."

(Guy nails it.

The only way to save the system is to collapses the currency basically.

"The lack of available good options? To the myriad crisies we Face? 

Tells you exactly where we are.

But, collapsing the currency results in the systems collapse.

It's quite the conundrum to say the least.

Have you talked to your creator lately?

Y'all on good terms?

Do you do it often?

Somebody else got a Holy Book 

that's being played out right in front of their eyes?

Like this one:

Come share it with me.

I wanna know what it says.

There isn't one I assure you.

That might be trying to tell you something.

It really might.

"In a nuclear war, all currencies and financial systems will be nuked. That is the ultimate de-dollarisation."

"Weaponising the world’s money is killing global public goods. If you want a brawl, please don’t break the bar."

Still more

 

Hard landing or harder? The Fed may have to make a choice

"In his testimony before Congress earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell indicated that “final interest rate levels are likely to be higher than previously expected” and “the restoration of price stability is likely to require that we time to maintain a restrictive stance”. This is how the hard Fed showed itself and markets collapsed accordingly. But a few weeks earlier, Powell had sent financial markets into the running when he said, “We can now say for the first time that the disinflation process has begun.” Accustomed to years of easy money, financial markets celebrate at the slightest sign that the Fed will loosen monetary policy and make its task more difficult. However, they are not the only market not currently cooperating."

"Labor is hard to find, especially when it comes to hospitality and leisure. One reason is that the workforce is short of 3.5 million workers compared to pre-Covid projections. Older workers understandably quit during the pandemic, and many did not return. Pensions are still continuing at an accelerated pace. And tragically, as Powell pointed out, Covid-19 has also ended the lives of half a million workers in the US, while a slower rate of immigration has resulted in about a million fewer workers than expected."

("Labor is hard to find, especially when it comes to hospitality and leisure." Yeah, you know why? Cause the jobs suck, they have no benefits, the hours are horrible, management is basically your coworkers from six months ago when you both started and all you're never going to keep up with rising cost etc...So yeah, Good luck with all that..."the workforce is short of 3.5 million workers compared to pre-Covid projections" Thats big because that's the "projection" of workers that would have been there if the growth pre-Covid would have continued. (It's faulty thinking, it just assumes Covid or no Covid with no other options available, nothing else could have happened etc but I digress.) "Projected" isn't "actual". The piece from the other day said 5.7 workers short post Covid. So, 3.5 million short of projections, plus .5 million lost to Covid, and a million fewer immigrants = 5 million in my rudimentary math.)

"Other markets are also stagnating. For example, home sales in the US have slowed significantly, but home prices have generally held up, likely because not much supply is coming to the market. Because mortgage rates have risen so much over the past year, a homeowner with a 30-year 4 percent mortgage will have to shell out a lot more monthly payments when upgrading to a slightly better home with a new 7 percent mortgage. Because she can’t afford to buy, she doesn’t sell. And because this limits the supply of housing in the market, there is only moderate downward pressure on prices."

(I'll buy that, makes sense.)

"Finally, inflation is trending downward as pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and war-related commodity supply disruptions are now being addressed.'

(I guess they aren't looking at the same Core #'s I am from April 2021 to now.)

"Belief in painless “flawless disinflation” and a soft landing lead to a self-reinforcing equilibrium with few believing there is much more the Fed needs to do. As a result, workers are not being laid off, financial asset and housing prices are holding up, and households have the jobs and wealth to keep spending. But without some slack in the jobs market, the Fed cannot feel comfortable pausing its efforts."

(Okay in order:

"Belief in painless “flawless disinflation” and a soft landing lead to a self-reinforcing equilibrium with few believing there is much more the Fed needs to do."

This type of faulty thinking just flat out denies ALL historical precedent. Not some, not a lil here and there around the edges etc...ALL historical precedent.

I love using peoples own data etc.

You dont want me joining your organization and combing through your by-laws, I'll just put it that away and yes I have been like this my entire adult life. 

(The graph about core CPI in the earlier piece (April 2021 till now) and now this chart yet again, both generated and pretty easy to find by the Fed itself.

What they are trying to say is: 

"We are going to do something we have never done before." and the financial markets just eat it all up believing with some kinda false hope that the fed will do just that "pull off something it's never done before". This with a Fed Chairman that's a Wall street lawyer  and who doesn't think the $ supply has anything to do with anything anymore? This is the cast of Characters that are gonna pull off something that's never been done before?

"We're setting sail to the place on the map

From which no one has ever returned

Drawn by the promise of the joker and the fool

By the light of the crosses that burned

Drawn by the promise of the women and the lace

And the gold and the cotton and pearls

It's the place where they keep all the darkness you need

You sail away from the light of the world on this trip, baby

You will pay tomorrow

You're gonna pay tomorrow

You will pay tomorrow..."

(Sail to him "light of the world" would be your best option.)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says money printing doesn't lead to inflation

February 24, 2021 

"In response to a questions posed by Congressman Warren Davidson about whether “M2 [money supply] going up by 25% in one year” is going to “diminish the value of the U.S. dollar,” Powell responded, “there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time.”

(Again, just the faulty logic involved. Just because something hasn't happened in a long time? Clearly doesn't mean it cant/wont happen.)

Powell added that “the correlation between different aggregates [like] M2 (money supply) and inflation is just very, very low, and you see that now where inflation is at 1.4% for this year. Inflation dynamics evolve over time, but they don’t tend to change overnight.”

(And what exactly happened Chairman Powell?

This guy should have been canned at the end of his first term 

and an economist put in his place...

But I forget, the economist these days 

wanna take out housing from Core CPI etc...)

"When asked about his views on inflation as a whole, Powell commented that “we do expect inflation to move up both because of base effects…and also because we could have a surge in spending as the economy re-opens, we don’t expect that to be a persistent, longer-term force, so while you could see prices move up, that’s a different thing from persistent, high inflation, which we do not expect. If we do get it, we have the tools to deal with it.”

I mean if you cant even get that right?

"Fed Chair Jerome Powell says money printing doesn't lead to inflation"

Why are you even the Fed Chair?

"If we do get it, we have the tools to deal with it."

9Interest rates aren't going to fix being 5.7 million workers short.

So what other tools do they have and how exactly have they been employing them? (Not counting letting maturing bonds, "roll off' the feds balance sheet.)

?

I'm waiting.

I got a chair at the table all ready.

Come explain it to me plz...

fact is somebody said they dont have the tools to fight this before it ever even got started.

Who was that BTW?

It's the spirit of truth telling you wats up and you better start getting some tings right and quick etc...)

'...to get the job done, the Fed must force markets to abandon their belief that disinflation will only be accompanied by minor job losses. In fact, a recent study by Stephen Cecchetti and others suggests that every disinflation since the 1950s has been associated with a significant rise in unemployment."

(Okay, one at a  time again:

1) The financial markets just are not going to:

 

"abandon their belief that disinflation will only be accompanied by minor job losses."

It's  both irrational and a reckless mindset.

The financial markets have bought into their own pre-conceived notion of

'peace and prosperity"

basically.

Opps.

2) Why did it take so long for the study the writer mentions to get done, be released etc?

"a recent study by Stephen Cecchetti and others"

?

And it doesn't, "suggest" anything. it shows

"every disinflation since the 1950s has been associated with a significant rise in unemployment."

Why just here recently was that study done and released?

All part of the 'softening up"

process for what they know is coming.

Promise...)

"the benign balance can turn into a malignant one. Markets could be having their Wile E. Coyote moment. Layoffs may lead to more layoffs as companies feel confident they can rehire if the need arises. In turn, laid-off employees may be forced to sell their homes, depressing property prices and reducing household wealth. Unemployment and reduced wealth may affect household spending, which in turn will hurt corporate profits. This will lead to more layoffs, falling financial markets and financial sector stress, and even more subdued spending. . . We could end up with a deeper recession than currently expected because it’s hard to get even a little bit of unemployment.

("Unemployment and reduced wealth may affect household spending"

May affect?

And the author is:

"a former central banker 

and professor of finance 

at the University of Chicago 

Booth School of Business"

When's the last time he ever drew an unemployment check?

When is the last time they ever knew someone who drew an unemployment check?

These people are just so out of touch with reality it's mind-numbing.

But the situation they describe in that last paragraph from the article?

Pretty much wats on the way.

Count on it.)

"Then the Fed is tempted to be more ambiguous, maintain a soft landing on the menu and pray for flawless disinflation. If so, the Cecchetti study warns that the ultimate unemployment needed to contain inflation could be much higher. The Fed’s only realistic options might be a hard landing and an even harder landing. It might be time to make a choice.'

("pray for flawless disinflation" 

all you want.

It's never happened and it's not gonna happen this time either.)

'The Fed’s only realistic options might be a hard landing and an even harder landing.'

The lack of available good options on so many different crisies all at the same time should tell you exactly what time it's getting ready to be. 

I think I remember somebody starting to say that a while back...pretty sure.

Yup.

I love you baby.