Thursday, June 23, 2022

It's not

 

gonna get much better anytime soon on any of the fronts we are facing crises on.

It's just not.

Were here for all practical purposes.


US import demand is dropping off a cliff


"Container imports bound for the U.S. have dropped over 36% since May 24."

"Some economists speculate that with the Fed beginning to raise rates and draw down its balance sheet, we may be experiencing “peak inflation.” However, even if inflationary pressures begin to ease, consumers may still be overexposed to rising interest rates through the use of credit in a way that could further deteriorate demand and discretionary spending."

"Credit card spending has been accelerating at a time when personal savings rates have continued to decrease and move toward some of their lowest rates (last reading 4.4) since the Great Financial Crisis (4.5 in August 2009). There are two ways to read very low savings rates: either consumers are exceptionally confident and exuberantly spending their money or consumers are spending every last dollar they have in an attempt to keep their heads above water in a high-inflation environment. Either way, there isn’t any slack left in consumer wallets — it’s hard to imagine consumer spending growing from here.

(I'd go with  "consumers are spending every last dollar they have in an attempt to keep their heads above water in a high-inflation environment.")

"Unfortunately, inflationary pressures in energy and food don’t know or care that American consumers are out of money — inflation in those sectors was caused by supply shocks, not artificially stimulated demand. It is also important to keep in mind that the rate of growth for the Producer Price Index has been outpacing the Consumer Price Index, so some producers may still be taking some hits from rising costs that have not yet been passed on to the consumer."

"...So even though total revolving credit outstanding is just at pre-pandemic levels, it is nonetheless accelerating, and if prices continue to rise, it is reasonable to expect that revolving credit outstanding will rise as well."

(Yup, count on it.)








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