people are not understanding,
even when somebody
(Guess who ;-)
has been trying to tell them for years:
middleeastmonitor 10/04/25
"The hypersonic challenge
The worst news for Israel was the Iranians’ launching of their Fattah-1 and Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles, which performed much better than anticipated. In the war’s most fiercely contested 24 hours, Israel’s intercept rate of these missiles declined from its normal 90 per cent to as low as 65 per cent. The mathematics are sobering. Iran fired over 400 missiles during the 12-day conflict, with more than 40 causing damage or casualties despite Israel’s layered defense system. In a prolonged engagement, those numbers could multiply exponentially.
“The hypersonic threat remakes the math entirely,” said Dr Tal Kalisky, a missile defence expert from Israel. Even as he highlighted that Israel had successfully shot down more than 95 per cent of ordinary missiles, he acknowledged the unprecedented challenge posed by missiles descending from beyond the atmosphere at speeds a decade faster than the speed of sound, splitting their warheads in flight."
"Only Arrow 3 and David’s Sling are capable of mid-air adjustment to pursue such threats, and both are dependent upon interceptor reserves that dipped perilously low during June’s action. An early-July Israeli Defence Ministry evaluation reported a general success rate of 86 per cent against ballistic missiles in the conflict.
But here lies the key question:
What if Iran fires not 400 missiles
over 12 days,
but 400 missiles in 24 hours?
Israel
(just like the US
in similar circumastances)
would be
screwed
to put it bluntly.
"Israeli intelligence officials believe that such a power vacuum would either radicalise or moderate Tehran’s response, depending on the individuals who ultimately come to power. Decapitation tactics cut both ways. Israel showed that it can reach deep into Iran’s command hierarchy. However, that capability may actually accelerate rather than decelerate conflict if Tehran’s leadership concludes that it needs to act before it becomes a target itself."
("Better use em while we still got em guys.")
"The strategic arithmetic is also made more complex by what didn’t happen in June. Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq mainly waited out of the immediate fighting, choosing to save their strength rather than open up several fronts against Israel. Round two could be multi-front. Iran learned that trying it alone wasn’t a successful move. Israel knew that its deterrents could be overwhelmed. Both indications lead to an even worse scenario the next time around."
(Smart cowboys plot and plan and strategize
for the long haul they dont just go all in
guns a blazin etc.)
"The Russian and Chinese roles
Russia and China won’t intervene directly in a renewed Israel-Iran war but will both defend Tehran and introduce a dangerous element of complexity. Russia, particularly, owes a debt to Iran for providing drones that have been crucially effective in Ukraine. That debt is now being repaid with the provision of intelligence, ammunition, and electronic warfare gear, which could be used to counteract some of the disadvantages Iran experienced in June. The Russians won’t send in troops, but will outfit Tehran appropriately. With what Iran has done for Russia in Ukraine, they see such help as a strategic investment."
"China’s interest is less noisy but arguably more important. Beijing aims to prevent a wider Middle East conflict
(There is a book that says otherwise.)
that could threaten to destabilize oil supplies and complicate its broader great power rivalry with Washington. Even in the face of rivalry, China will strive to prevent Iran from disintegrating under Western pressure. China views Tehran as a valuable counterweight to American influence in the region."
"The two key questions on policymakers’ minds in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran are what will ignite the next installment and when to launch a pre-emptive attack before it’s too late?"
"June’s clash flared out of a multi-layered chain of escalations of proxy attacks, assassinations, and miscalculation."
"Killing Iran’s top leaders, military commanders, or chief scientists can get out of hand and cascade into war across the region."
"Time may not be on the side of peace. Iran’s nuclear program, battered though it is, continues to advance. Each month takes Tehran further toward a line that Israel has vowed never to allow it to cross. And each month, more and better missiles for Iran, and more sophisticated methods to deliver them."
(Why do you think
we just put a bunch of air tankers in the region?
Thursday, October 2, 2025
Meanwhile, back at the ranch so to speak...
US Deploys Military Assets to Middle East:
Newsweek 10/01/25)
"We are not in a stable equilibrium. We are counting down. The only question is whether we’re counting down to a negotiated settlement or to a war so destructive that June will be remembered as a border war."
"Meanwhile, the ghost ceasefire persists, but the hiatus is coming to an end. But in Tel Aviv’s and Tehran’s war rooms, planners are feverishly working on the sequel that everyone suspects will prove far worse than the original. Whether the preparation itself becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy is perhaps the most chilling question in the Middle East these days."
And I agree with what he just said 100%.
You wont find that viewpoint
echoed in this country much,
if at all.
"Drew?
You're so Debbie downer man,
We got an agreement in Gaza dude.
Lighten up a lil."
"When you think is
peace and safety
A sudden destruction
Collective security
for surety, ye-ah!"
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