Sunday, April 20, 2025

Good read (Iran pt.2)

 

Lots of good info.

Lots of good points.


The Iranian Negotiating Tactic 

the Trump Administration Doesn’t Get

"Sanctions and ‘maximum pressure’ have never made the clerical regime 

abandon its nuclear ambitions."

(And never will, sanctions have never worked, this instance, Russia etc.)


I Completely disagree with the conclusion 

it might as well be state sponsored propaganda.


Opinion by 

Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

04/19/2025 12:00 PM EDT

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, 

is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Ray Takeyh is senior fellow 

at the Council on Foreign Relations.

(And that's probably why lol)


"Across the political spectrum in Tehran — from surly Revolutionary Guards to the regime’s more moderate diplomats and technocrats — the first round of nuclear talks in Oman between the United States and the Islamic Republic has been greeted with a measure of optimism. Iran’s savvy and smug foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, professed himself satisfied. The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has blessed a second meeting with President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, scheduled in Rome this weekend."

"In other words, 

far from being a supplicant,

 the Islamic Republic 

is exuding confidence."

(I said they had nukes last September.

They have definitely got something up their sleeve or they wouldn't be feeling so confident, and? They wouldn't be wasting their time going through the motions with all these "negotiations" just like we are doing if that wasn't the case.)


"The Islamic Republic’s affection for proxy wars, terrorism and antisemitic conspiracies display a mindset fundamentally different from our own. Sanctions may cause such believers pain. They deprive them of resources. 

But they haven’t in the slightest 

obliged them to forsake their faith

 and their missions."

(Which is to wipe Israel off of the map.)


"Obama’s more friendly outreach only made progress after Washington made a key concession — Iran’s “right” to enrich uranium. The Americans also made a second key concession: allowing Iran to retain a substantial nuclear infrastructure, which could ramp back up at any time. Ali Salehi, the MIT-educated nuclear engineer who was probably the mastermind behind Iran’s dual-use import network, loved the Obama agreement because it would guarantee the Islamic Republic a more advanced, better-financed atomic program that it could grow in the open. It was Obama’s permissive terms much more than the promised financial relief that induced the theocracy to sign the 2015 accord."


"From the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s forward to now, the Islamic Republic has proven far more resilient than its critics expected, in large part because it has a pattern of using short-term retreats to pursue long-term, consistent goals. The regime gives ground when necessary but always circles back to take back its concessions."

(Cunning would be the word you are looking for.)


"You can see this pattern domestically. Since 2009, the clerical regime has overcome numerous nationwide protests, some of which had economic sparks and all of which could have proved fatal to the theocracy. Each time, neither Khamenei nor his security services have flinched from doing what’s necessary to suppress internal dissent, but they have also made short-term concessions to retain control. 


(Ref: 

CHAPTER XI

BIBLICAL DEMONOLOGY AND WORLD GOVERNMENTS

IN EVERY AGE of human history and in every phase of daily life demons have played a tremendous and very important role. In no realm is their activity more significant than in the sphere of human government. 

In this area possibly more than in any other field of their operation their activity has frequently not been clearly discerned or even partially understood. Their invisible nature, their close and inseparable identity with their visible human agents, and the supernatural character of their operations have combined to clothe them and their wicked machinations and evil enterprises in ominous mystery. Innumerable multitudes without the light of divine revelation, and other multitudes possessing the Bible, but uninitiated into the truths of the "mystery of lawlessness" (II Thess. 2:7), cannot get beyond "flesh and blood" (Eph.6:12). They can see only the human actors upon the stage of history. Wicked rulers, ruthless dictators, tyrants, oppressors, kings, governors, and presidents are, to them, the real and only characters in the great drama of life as it affects the political realm. They have no idea at all of the unseen realm of evil personalities, energizing and motivating their human agents. "The principalities ... the powers ... the world rulers of this present darkness," and "the spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places" (Eph. 6:12, R.S.V.) are, so far as they are concerned, mere theological nonentities with which they do not reckon. However, in the realm of human government the unseen personalities of the evil supernatural sphere are just as real and active as their visible human agents, and any deeper interpretation of human history, tracing in it a divine purpose and goal, must take into account the invisible yet very real realm of spirit. Thus interpreted, human history is seen to be not merely an account of human activities and events independent of spiritual forces, but a continuous interaction of spiritual and human personalities, in which demons play a prominent part.)


"For instance, the mullahs have repeatedly eased restrictions against what they consider a lethal threat — public visibility of women’s hair — allowing scarves to come down temporarily when unrest threatens the state. Later the regime reasserts its sartorial dictates, arresting and beating refractory women. Abroad the regime acts similarly. When the United States invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, Tehran held back, temporarily played nice, and then devised tactics to kill and torment Americans. Obama’s nuclear accord fits the pattern: Make minor concessions while establishing the means to come back stronger."


"The Islamic Republic has recently had an awful run, and the Trump administration might assume that Tehran is on its back foot as the talks get underway."

(They are cunning, 

what if that's what they want you to think?

But they did not expect Hamas and Hezbollah 

to be neutralized)


"The collapse of the core elements of Tehran’s 

“axis of resistance” has certainly shrunk its imperial reach."

(And wasn't on anybody's radar

that it would happen in the way that it did.)


"Gone is its close ally and neighbor, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, along with the Syrian land bridge to Lebanon and the proxy armies that allowed the clerical regime to project power in the Arab East. 

On two occasions last year, Jerusalem demonstrated its capacity to easily breach Iran’s air defenses. 

(Newsflash: They didn't just "breach them" 

they destroyed them and that's a big difference both:

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

and

Ray Takeyh is senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

should know, so why didnt they say so?

See point about US propaganda above.)


"The mullahs’ retaliatory, conventionally armed missiles, in which the regime has massively invested, proved woefully inadequate: Most were intercepted, those that got through caused minimal damage and one Palestinian girl died."

(And that is your set up 

for what we are walking into, 

remember from earlier:

"In other words, 

far from being a supplicant, 

the Islamic Republic 

is exuding confidence."



Why are they so confident?


"We are optimistic about our own capabilities"

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei


Would be what I would want 

to get to the bottom of

and:

Saturday, August 31, 2024

The Case For

 Iran currently having a Nuclear Weapon.

explains just why 

that confidence is like it is.)


"What the Corps (IRGC) opposes is concessions to the West that can’t be easily undone. Today they wish to rebuild shattered defenses and revive battered proxies. For those standing sentry, the value of an nuclear weapon as the ultimate deterrent has never been higher, which is why Iranian VIPs are now discussing the utility of having atomic arms sooner not later. The Guards would not look kindly on an old man going wobbly. Khamenei has had their loyalty in part because he has consistently promoted the most ardent among them and unfailingly stood by the guards as they crushed dissent, even when doing so required killing young girls.


(See the quote from Biblical Demonology 

and World Governments  above again if you really need to.)


"The Iranian hardliners also believe they have figured out Trump. In their telling, America is no longer a great power capable of making alliances and imposing its demands on recalcitrant regimes. Javan, the Revolutionary Guards newspaper, sees Trump’s unpredictability and bluster as shtick designed to compensate for America’s essential weakness: “He tries to use his personality in order to create an atmosphere whereby he can achieve dramatic results.”

(Yuppers...sounds like they got him 

(and the US these days) pegged.)


"As the diplomacy between the two sides commenced, Nournews, the mouthpiece of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which makes all foreign-policy decisions, stressed: “Countries that have resisted Trump’s trade tariffs have communicated to him that they are not afraid of his threats and can withstand economic pressure. 

(Countries know were not as relevant as we once were.

Why should they deal w us?)


This type of resistance could compel Trump to reconsider his policies, as such pressures and threats may inflict damage on the U.S. economy.

(These days?

Trump's regime is out to destroy it themselves

so that line of reasoning is out the window.)


"All this means that the Islamic Republic has entered talks with the Trump administration not because of external pressure but in order to preserve the essential features of its expanding nuclear infrastructure — and they feel confident they can achieve this if the talks proceed."


(They want time to do that

and we want time 

to get our military assets in place

for the coming WWIII.


Reference:

B-1B Bones Make Unprecedented 

Bomber Task Force Deployment To Japan


Both sides know exactly

what the other is doing and why.


And all these

"negotiations"

are simply a moot point.

We and Israel will go after Iran's Nukes

and all hell in Eastern Europe

and the pacific (Taiwan)

will break loose when we do.


Thats why the Israelis were talking to our envoy in Paris

before Saturdays meeting in Rome

Mossad chief, Dermer meet US envoy Witkoff in Paris 

ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks


and why Iran was in Russia talking to Russia

(this week)


after talking to Russia and China 

before the first meeting a week ago.


Trump says he expects to make a decision 

on Iran’s nuclear program ‘very quickly’


That's all about negotiations?

As was Trumps meeting 

in the situation room? 


Trump holds situation room meeting 

on Iran nuclear deal negotiations


ya just might wanna pull it out:




"The mullahs know that what matters most are protecting its new generation of centrifuges. With much greater efficiency and speed, these machines can enrich uranium to bomb-grade and can be housed in small facilities that are harder to detect. According to the Institute for Science and International Security, these advanced centrifuges are already up and running."


"Even a stringent inspection regime, unless supported by a well-placed human-intelligence network, would find locating these centrifuges an excruciatingly difficult task. And basing a country’s diplomacy and future security on developing and maintaining a human-intelligence network in a hostile country is a fool’s errand. The Israelis, who have unquestionably developed a good intelligence network inside Iran far better in its operational utility than anything America probably has developed, would never be so bold."

(100% agreed.)


"Arms control is a protracted process as technical details require endless negotiations between physicists and politicians. Deadlines always slip and redlines have a way of blurring. 
All this serves the clerical regime well. 
Such talks serve as a shield for its nuclear program 
from audacious Israelis, who may finally have a political consensus to attack Iran’s nuclear sites even if they aren’t confident that they can destroy the underground enrichment plants. 

(It serves our interest as well 
as we continue to maneuver miltary assets 
into place to get ready for the inevitable.)


"The clerical regime once worried that Trump might abet Israeli dreams of a combined Israeli-American aerial onslaught against the Islamic Republic."

(You can count on it.
We will see it happening
 here very shortly.)

"With talks underway, that fear certainly appears to be diminishing."

(Thats not what is diminishing their fear.
Having a nuclear weapon 
people dont think you do is.)

"With talks underway, 
that fear 
certainly appears to be diminishing."

That is exactly what 
Iran 
wants the US 
and the world 
to think
and thats exactly what 
the US 
wants Iran 
and the world 
to think.

And both sides know 
exactly what the other is doing 
and why.)


"Today, the mullahs seem to think 
they understand the American game plan. 
Do we understand theirs?"

No, no we most certainly do not.
And it will cost US.
Big time.

Godspeed everybody.







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