"Global property markets — which have boomed during the last decade of low interest rates — are now coming under pressure, as central banks tighten monetary policy in an effort to cool inflation."
"CapEcon now expects gains to US home prices to slow to zero, according to a Monday note from its senior economic adviser, Vicky Redwood."
"House prices in the US have risen about 38% since February 2020, before the onset of the pandemic, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The shift to remote work helped fuel demand, helped by low borrowing costs.'
"Interest rates may rise further than we expect — in which case, price falls would spread to other countries, including the US," she said.
The CapEcon note was published just as traders ramped up their expectations for US interest-rate rises in the wake of Friday's red-hot inflation data.
THIS IS THE PART YOU NEED TO BE AWARE OF:
"A week ago, traders expected the Fed to hike interest rates to 3% by February. But as of Tuesday, they expect rates to hit more than 3.75% by that date, according to Bloomberg data"
"...more than 3.75% by that date, ..."
(early February that is.)
The fed is saying 3.88% by the end of 2023.
Wall Street traders are saying higher than 3.75 by February of next year.
I'd count on the later of those two projections being correct if I was you and I've harped about what happens at 4% enough already and again, why are all the articles about interest rates stuck on these two sets of numbers?
2-2.5% and 4% or a lil under, but nobody is saying why these #'s matter so much.
First comes the housing crash then the default, that's why
Remember when I said the drivers license branch seemed Orwellian in nature?
We probably wont be able to afford to be able to drive anywhere by Feb, and only those with a real ID will be able to board Domestic flights and even that is only if you can afford a ticket.
GODSPEED EVERYBODY
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