FYI

 

Recession Risks Are Piling Up And Investors Need to Get Ready

(Oh its more than just a recession)

"The U.S. Treasury yield curve has collapsed to near inversion -- a situation when short-term rates exceed those with longer tenors, which has often preceded a downturn. In Europe, energy costs have climbed to unprecedented levels, as sanctions against Russia exacerbate a global commodity crunch.

“Over time, the three biggest factors that tend to drive the U.S. economy into a recession are an inverted yield curve, some kind of commodity price shock or Fed tightening,” said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. “Right now, there appears to be potential for all three to happen at the same time.”

(Count on it)

"Food prices are already past levels that contributed to uprisings in the past, and the outbreak of a war between Russia and Ukraine -- which combined account for 28% of global wheat exports and 16% of corn, according to UBS Global Wealth Management -- only adds to risks."

(Brother Brian absolutely nailed it when we were building the wheelchair ramp last week, talking about this exact thing (Food prices, Russia and Ukraine wheat production) he said: "It's the red horse of the apocalypse brother")

"...the root cause of the current spike in inflation is a supply shock, rendering the (FED''S) playbook used to fight downturns for the past 30 years all but useless."

(I said the Fed's playbook was useless for a different reason (supply and consumer side hit at same time) the day before we locked down)