Tuesday, April 26, 2022

That

 


thing that wasn't ever going to happen?

Inflation?

And then it wasn't going to be very bad/

 And then not last so long?

Transitory, I'm pretty sure was the word that was used.

Then it was just the Covid affected industries.

Then it was the wider economy.

And now it's worse than the experts were saying it would be?

Then the experts admitted we will have to have rate hikes but just .25% at a time.

And now were talking .5% hikes?

And now the mantra seems to be inflation has peaked...

I don't know about you, but if you pay close enough attention?

And you see the goalpost constantly being moved?

You start to get a sense of what's really going on.


To think that inflation has peaked has no empirical data to support that conclusion whatsoever...None.


In fact, quite the opposite is true and that conclusion (that inflation has nowhere near peaked) does have a basis in empirical data such as:


Lagarde Says Europe, U.S. Face ‘Different Beast’ With Inflation


"Spiking inflation in Europe has been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent the price of fossil fuels soaring for European countries dependent on Moscow for natural gas and oil. Lagarde said 50% of Europe’s current record inflation stems from surging energy costs."

(What affects Europe will eventually wind up affecting the US as well, it's a matter of time and Moscow and Beijing both know it. And? It was the plan all along. poor Ukraine :-(. )

and:


Xi’s lockdowns will pull the rug out from under US truckers this summer


"But like most geopolitical events these days, the lockdowns in Shanghai and other Chinese cities are also a supply chain story that will have a dramatic effect on domestic freight markets."


"The recent slowdown in U.S. truckload markets is likely a precursor to a steeper decline in the coming weeks."


"As geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan described the situation on Twitter

"


"The three largest cities in China are going to be removed from the world market. According to analysts, at least 40% of China’s GDP has been taken offline and this was before lockdowns began in Beijing. The vast majority of this GDP is directly related to global manufacturing. Removing it means removing the flow of containers from the world economy."

"Chinese ports are operating, but the bigger risk is with Chinese trucking operations. According to a report in Bloomberg, only 20% of Shanghai’s trucking capacity is operating. Trucking is a bigger part of the flow of containers in and out of the Chinese ports than in the United States. Over 75% of container volumes in China ports enter or exit on a truck, while in the U.S. both trucks and railroads move freight from our ports."


"It takes approximately 10 days to three weeks after a vessel arrives in the U.S. before the containers that traveled on board enter the domestic surface freight market. This would put a slowdown in trucking freight volumes related to Chinese imports between May 13 and May 24."

"Eventually, the lockdowns will end and Chinese production will begin once again. However, the longer China stays offline, the longer it will take for production to ramp up. Supply chains don’t come online instantly."

"And just how long it takes for the lockdowns to end and the supply chains to begin operating again is a guessing game. But there is reason to believe that the Chinese lockdowns are far from over."  

(But somehow were being told that inflation has already peaked? 
The reality of the situation is actually quite different.)

1 Thessalonians 5:3


'While people are saying, “Peace and safety,” destruction will come on them suddenly, as labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will not escape."


The experts know whats going on. You should too.






"A key leading indicator

Freight is often looked at as a bellwether for the rest of the economy. If industries ranging from retail to housing to lumber are estimating that they’ll need fewer truckers, many economists see that as an omen of an economic downturn. If people aren’t buying or building as much stuff, there’s less of a need for truckers. Trucks move 72% of all freight."

"One 2019 study from Convoy, a trucking brokerage firm, found that six out of 12 trucking recessions led to macroeconomic downturns. For example, the trucking industry dipped in April 2006 — more than a year before the Great Recession slammed the larger economy."

"Trucking experiences recessionary periods twice as much as the rest of the economy. But for the 2 million American truck drivers who power much of this industry, the effects can be brutal."

“Like any recession, these periodic freight industry recessions cause real turmoil for the people who work in freight: Businesses go bankrupt, people lose their livelihoods, and families are disrupted,” said the Convoy report. 




During that meeting in Feb?







I'm sure they were just discussing Putin not invading Ukraine till after the Olympics and not coordinating the Ukraine invasion with the lockdowns in China.

Aren't you?

Everything is going exactly according to plan...yup...








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