Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Discernment Alert

 


"Russian forces took over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant a few days after the Kremlin’s 

full-scale invasion of Ukraine."


Russia issues stark warning over the nuclear power plant it’s occupying; Kyiv urges inspection of damaged facility


That quote is pretty far down the list of articles but "Full Scale Invasion" has started appearing in the preferred "narrative" in the last few weeks, where as before it was always "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" Only an astute observer of events would have noticed so why is this a big deal?

Because people are starting to figure out that it wasn't a "Full Scale Invasion" is what I would go with. It's more like live war games against an armed opponent than it is a full scale invasion. It's a tune up.


"But Ukrainin special forces hit that air base in Crimea and rendered half the aircraft of Russias black sea fleet inoperable...etc"

If you notice in those articles the word "inoperable" or "not air worthy" was used to describe the aircraft, not destroyed. 


Why Ukraine probably has long-range missiles


I told my buddy before that article came out (with more details) that we were obviously behind that strike and now several others as well...). How did I reach such a conclusion? Because if Ukraine had had that type of capability all along? Dont you think they would have been using it before? It was only after the HIMARS arrived that such attacks started taking place.

Witness:


It all started on Aug. 9 with an attack on Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, at least 140 miles behind the Russian front line. Satellite imagery released the next day revealed a scene of utter devastation, with at least nine Russian warplanes completely destroyed and many others rendered not airworthy. One Western intelligence official later claimed the attack had "put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use," which would raise the total number of destroyed or damaged aircraft to at least 13, as there were 26 aircraft at the base prior to the attack.

"The second confirmed hit took place exactly one week later, on Aug. 16, when a Russian munitions depot exploded dramatically near Dzhankoi, in northern Crimea, some 120 miles behind the front line. An electricity substation in the same area was also targeted and destroyed."

"Kyiv has been ambiguous about the provenance of these attacks."

"On background, however, a host of anonymous Ukrainian officials have claimed responsibility and leaked disparate explanations to Western reporters. One told the New York Times on the day of the Saki strike that a "device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used," without specifying what this may have been: a drone, a missile, or some remote-detonated bomb. The next day came the suggestion that Ukrainian Special Forces were responsible; not necessarily at odds with the first accounting, but more suggestive that whatever struck Crimea was not a missile fired from hundreds of miles away."

"Finally, on Aug. 20, Ukrainian Defense Secretary Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post that the attacks in Crimea were the result of a new strategy to degrade Russian forces by striking deep in the enemy rear. A cadre of saboteurs, a "resistance force," as Reznikov termed it, had been cobbled together in January and were now working in conjunction with Ukrainian Special Forces, targeting ammunition depots, fuel warehouses and Russian command centers.

"For our American partners it's an absolutely convenient situation, because we didn't use American weapons," Reznikov told the Post.


"Yet former U.S. Special Forces operatives and military analysts doubt that ground forces planted the explosives, based on the publicly available evidence of the Saki aftermath."

"The craters visible in satellite photos are 10 meters across," Chuck Pfarrer, the former squadron leader of Navy SEAL Team 6, told Yahoo News. "And each is consistent with the explosion of at least 500 pounds of C-4. No Special Forces team is going to drag a ton of C-4 to a target when two ounces would be sufficient to destroy an aircraft."


"Another problem with the Special Forces theory is that no gunfire was reported by either unofficial or official Russian sources, or heard on the numerous civilian-shot videos of the airbase attack. Then there was the timing of the attack: at 10 a.m. on a weekday, such that Russian holiday-makers at a nearby beach witnessed the explosions and skedaddled anxiously from their bungalows. Special operations are usually carried out at night, under the cover of darkness to avoid detection by the enemy (think: the SEAL Team 6 raid on Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad).

(WOD BTW, skedaddled)


"This was a missile strike," another former U.S. Special Forces operative, who asked to remain anonymous, said. "Could partisans or special operators have been on the ground reconnoitering the targets for artillery? Sure. But nothing in those images tells me Ukrainians were setting things off at the scene."


"Despite several promising systems currently in development, the Ukrainians are not known to have anything in active service that can fly hundreds of miles. The longest-range munition in their arsenal is the Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile, which has a maximum range of around 115 miles, around 25 miles short of Saki Air Base."


"Moreover, there's nothing with that range in the publicly disclosed weapons packages provided by the United States or its NATO allies. The most advanced Western-supplied artillery system, the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), has been supplied with M31 GMLRS rockets, which have a maximum range of about 50 miles."


"One likely culprit that could have been used for the Saki attack, according to experts, is the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). A Lockheed Martin-manufactured tactical ballistic missile, it can be fired from the M142 HIMARS or the M270 MLRS, both platforms Ukraine now possesses. With an even longer range than the M31 GMLRS rockets, the ATACMS would place any target within a 190-mile range of the launcher within striking distance for the Ukrainian military — including one in Crimea."

"The ATACMS is also more destructive against a single target than M31 GMLRS rockets. As a larger single munition, it takes up an entire "pod" in the launcher, as compared with six M31 GMLRS. The ATACMS also concentrates all 500 pounds of its warhead on a lone target, traveling at a supersonic speed of Mach 3.5. That makes it all but impossible to intercept with air defenses or capture on video. An ATACMS strike is only visually discernible after impact when whatever it hits explodes."

"Given its range, speed and power, the ATACMS is a probable culprit for the Saki Air Base strike, except for one important thing: Washington has publicly denied sending it to Ukraine."


"At the Aspen Security Forum in July, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that President Biden wasn't prepared to send ATACMS, citing fear of escalation with Russia. The U.S. has been especially hesitant about providing weapons that could strike targets on Russian soil, although theoretically an assault rifle or Javelin antitank missile could do that if fired close enough from the border. So far, the Ukrainians have been remarkably disciplined about not using U.S.-supplied artillery to hit outside of their own territory; Crimea, as the U.S. has repeatedly stated, is sovereign Ukrainian land and therefore fair game. Nevertheless, Sullivan said, American security assistance must "ensure we do not end up in a circumstance where we're heading down the road toward a third world war."

(Good luck with that, especially given the fact the we just did escalate things in the manner the Russians said not to.)


"But a lot can change in the space of a single month, especially in a war that has only gone on for six. Security assistance to Ukraine has evolved more quickly than many would have anticipated when the Russians first rolled in on Feb. 24."

(You might just wanna be asking yourself why that is if the Russians were getting their asses kicked so bad.)


"An early "shopping list" compiled by Ukraine's Ministry of Defense in April, seen by Yahoo News, contained weapons that at the time many Western military analysts thought would never find their way onto the battlefield. Either these platforms were seen as too provocatory, as per Sullivan's jitters of starting World War III, or it was believed that Ukrainians couldn't be trained fast enough and manage the logistical nightmare of maintaining the systems on the war's front lines. (Ukrainians have consistently defied these expectations by demonstrating a remarkable absorption capacity for NATO-standard armaments.)"


"The shopping list included everything from NASAMS air defense batteries to Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the now much-beloved HIMARS. Everything on it has since been publicly given to Ukraine — with the lone exception of ATACMS."

(Again, if things are going as we are being told they are? Why  have we given the Ukrainians the weapons platforms that were once seen as "provocative?)


"American security assistance has evolved both openly and clandestinely since the war began. Some weapons platforms have migrated to Ukraine under the radar, as it were, most notably the AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles, which the Pentagon was compelled to admit sending to Ukraine only after wreckage started appearing on the battlefield and on Russian social media channels."


"Now comes the first piece of visual evidence suggesting that Ukraine may well be using ATACMS or another unacknowledged Western-supplied munition."

"On Aug. 19, Alexey Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, gave an interview to Politika, a Ukrainian news outlet, confirming that Ukraine does indeed have long-range artillery. Arestovych claimed these were not ATACMS but "another missile" that is both smaller and faster."

"There are only two known missiles that fit that description."

"The first is the ER-GMLRS, which is a longer-range, more sophisticated version of the M31 GMLRS rockets currently in Ukrainian service. The second is the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a more accurate, harder-to-intercept replacement for the ATACMS, which is capable of flying up to 400 miles at an even faster speed.'


"In any event, Ukraine now looks to be firing longer-range missiles it wasn't using before. And they all but certainly came from another country. According to one former CIA official, "That would be the textbook definition of Western covert action assistance."


(If Ukraine is kicking their ass so much? 

Why would they need it?)


And meanwhile don't forget this mentioned in that piece above about Ukraine having long range missiles:

"One Western intelligence official later claimed the attack had "put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use," which would raise the total number of destroyed or damaged aircraft to at least 13, as there were 26 aircraft at the base prior to the attack."

and contrast it with this:


Air Force comments on increase of Russian weapons in Belarus: we are preparing for "congratulations" on Independence Day


"According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the last few days, there has been a decrease in the Russian aviation activity; at the same time, about 430 planes and more than 360 helicopters are concentrated at airfields near Ukraine’s borders in the Russian Federation, Belarus and the territory of occupied Crimea."

Yurii Ihnat, spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, at a briefing on 16 August

Quote: "The armed forces of Ukraine constantly monitor the movement of  [Russian] troops and the transportation of ammunition (both Iskander missiles and others). This is taking place not today, not yesterday, but always. When an IL-76 lands at one of the airfields in Belarus, it is clear that it delivers weapons there.

"There is certain intelligence data, and there is information in open sources that the enemy is building up its forces on Belarusian territory. This is also a political component: that is, to threaten the West on the borders of this state, as well as to threaten Ukraine."

"Also: According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the last few days, there has been a decrease in the Russian aviation activity; at the same time, about 430 planes and more than 360 helicopters are concentrated at airfields near Ukraine’s borders in the Russian Federation, Belarus and the territory of occupied Crimea.


and we are acting like we did something by knocking out 13 planes and put 4, 10 foot craters in one airfield?


It's probable the reason for this:

Russia says it moved hypersonic missiles to Kaliningrad region



and now we've had this:

Russian partisans claim responsibility for assassination of Kremlin propagandist Daria Dugina


which has lead to this:


"Kremlin propagandists blamed Ukraine and the Ukrainian political leadership for the murder of the daughter of Putin's ally, demanding strikes on the "decision-making centers" in Kyiv - including the President's Office and the Central Directorate of the SBU.


Which they see as justified as we escalated things just like they said for us not to. 

Good luck avoiding ww3 at this point.


Remember matthew henrys commentary on Joel 2:28?


Joel 2:28

New International Version

The Day of the Lord


“And afterward,

    I will pour out my Spirit on all people.


"The effect of this blessing:

They shall prophesy;

they shall receive new discoveries of divine things,

( UAP, Locust from the deep, AI as the antichrist)

and that not for their own use only,

but for the benefit of the church.

They shall interpret scripture, 

(First fruits, Rev 20:4-6, etc...)

and speak of things secret, 

distant, and future, 


(have for a long time now on multiple subjects)


which by the utmost sagacities of reason, 

and their natural powers, 

they could not have any insight into nor foresight of."


I would take it serious and give your heart to Christ right now if I was you.

It's your only way out, and if you truly knew just how glorious it was going to be? You wouldn't worry a second about anything you might experience here in this realm.

Believe that.
















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