Hey?

 

It's working better than expected...

So far anyway.

Sanctions on Russian oil are having the ‘intended effect,’ IEA says

"Russian net oil output was down by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, according to the IEA’s oil market report."

Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency."

Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.

(That was kinda their game plan from the start if you been payin attention, listening etc...)

 'The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.

(The lack of any good options to the myriad crises we face...etc...)

Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed."

"Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.

“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.

(What happens to gas prices when that happens?

)

“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.

“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”

(And there ya go...

and what about China in the Pacific?

And the Russian offensive in Ukraine?

"...we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months..."

Seems like any time these experts make any kinda claim like that anymore they end up with egg on their faces.

And the short termness of it all...

"meet demand for the coming months"

Great.

Thx...

People thought they couldn't get their boat in the water last year?

Just wait...)

“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”

Sounds like shes talkin mid year...

Im telling ya, there aint gonna be a SPR drawdown this time. And this is gonna make last year look like nothing when the worlds largest oil producer starts cutting back just as the world is trying to get going again.

Confluences of crises anybody?

How can people not see it coming?

I just dont get it.

Every solution to everything is only done with short term considerations factored in.

It 

ought

to

tell

you

something.